UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos
Prague, Czech Republic
23 Feb 2019
Lightweight
VS
37%
Ismagulov
63%
Alvarez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DI
Damir Ismagulov
"Qazaq"
24 – 3
5'10"74" reachOrthodox35 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 35
Joel
Joel Alvarez
"El Fenomeno"
23 – 4
Pressure Fighter33 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'3"
CFR 61

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Alvarez

Alvarez holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Ismagulov has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Alvarez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 26 points.

Alvarez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Alvarez has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ismagulov
Alvarez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'3"
74"
Reach
+77"
35
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ismagulov
Alvarez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.4
60.9
43.6
Performance Avg
59.7
25
Quality of Victory
51
65
Momentum Score
59
Ismagulov
Alvarez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
2.1
42%
Strike Accuracy
57%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
6
5
Body
3
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
14Distance10
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Ismagulov
Alvarez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.3
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ismagulov
Alvarez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
64
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/27 fights
Chin rating based on
11/27 fights
Ismagulov
Alvarez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
59
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R2
Ismagulov
Alvarez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
88%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
3
5
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ismagulov
Alvarez
Striking1.4 / 6.5Volume9.4 / 2.5Grappling2.4 / 3.3Wrestling1.7 / 2.3Submission0.0 / 3.8Pressure2.1 / 8.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.5
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
2.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.3
9.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.5
Ismagulov
Strike Zones
Alvarez
Ismagulov
Attacking
8HEAD5BODY1LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD3BODY2LEGS11 absorbed
Alvarez
Attacking
6HEAD3BODY2LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD5BODY1LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ismagulov targets the head (57% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Alvarez targets the head (55% of attacks) — Ismagulov absorbs 55% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ismagulov
RND
Alvarez
0/0R00/0

Ismagulov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0104.5W5.8W4.7W4.5W4.6W7.1L7.0L2018-122019-082022-062023-07
WinLossTrend

Alvarez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L5.2W5.0W5.0W5.2W4.4L5.4W6.3W6.0W6.0W5.0L2019-022020-102023-072025-102026-05
WinLossTrend

Ismagulov · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Grant DawsonRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
Guram KutateladzeRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06
W · Dec · R3
Rafael AlvesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
W · Dec · R3
Thiago MoisesRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zhang · 2019-08

Alvarez · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Yaroslav AmosovRating 5
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Vicente LuqueRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Drakkar KloseRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · KO · R3
Elves BrenerRating 6.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
W · Sub · R2
Marc DiakieseRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07

News & Media

Damir Ismagulov · Joel Alvarez
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