UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
10 Oct 2020
Heavyweight
VS
97%
Aspinall
3%
Baudot
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:35
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Aspinall
Aspinall is a strong favourite at 97% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 81 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Aspinall has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 70 points.
Aspinall has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Baudot has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Aspinall
Baudot
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'5"+
Height
6'3"
78"
Reach
+79"
33+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Aspinall
Baudot
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
83.0
2.4
77.7
Performance Avg
0.0
70
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Aspinall
Baudot
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
4.7
1.5
69%
Strike Accuracy
51%
9.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
6 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
1
0
Body
0
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
4Distance3
0Clinch0
12Ground0
Aspinall
Baudot
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Aspinall
Baudot
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
54
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/18 fights
Chin rating based on
4/11 fights
Aspinall
Baudot
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
Aspinall
Baudot
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
6
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Aspinall
Baudot
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
9.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
1.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
AspinallBaudot
Strike Zones
Aspinall
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedBaudot
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Aspinall targets the head (94% of attacks) — Baudot absorbs 94% of strikes there
🎯Baudot targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Aspinall absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Aspinall
RND
Baudot
0/0R00/0
Aspinall · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Baudot · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Aspinall · Last 5
Upcoming
Ciryl GaneUFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Curtis BlaydesRating 5.9KO/TKO
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · KO · R1
Sergei PavlovichRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
W · KO · R1
Marcin TyburaRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
L · KO · R1
Curtis BlaydesRating 2.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07
Baudot · Last 4
L · KO · R2
Josh ParisianRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
L · Dec · R3
Parker PorterRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill · 2022-02
Upcoming
Rodrigo NascimentoUFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · KO · R1
Tom AspinallRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10