UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
New York City, USA
3 Nov 2018
Middleweight
VS
39%
Brunson
61%
Adesanya
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:51
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Adesanya
Adesanya holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Brunson has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Brunson throws more volume but Adesanya connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Brunson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Adesanya has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Brunson
Adesanya
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'4"
77"
Reach
+80"
42
Age
+36
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Brunson
Adesanya
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.2
63.4
54.7
Performance Avg
61.2
47
Quality of Victory
56
72
Momentum Score
100
Brunson
Adesanya
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.2
44%
Strike Accuracy
52%
6.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.2
7 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
9
0
Body
3
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance11
1Clinch2
0Ground0
Brunson
Adesanya
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.0
/ 10
1.5
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
1.4
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Brunson
Adesanya
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
18
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
6
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/32 fights
Chin rating based on
19/30 fights
Brunson
Adesanya
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
Brunson
Adesanya
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
39%
7
KO / TKO Wins
5
2
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Brunson
Adesanya
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.2
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
4.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
BrunsonAdesanya
Strike Zones
Brunson
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedAdesanya
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Brunson targets the head (67% of attacks) — Adesanya absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Adesanya targets the head (69% of attacks) — Brunson absorbs 69% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Brunson
RND
Adesanya
0/0R00/0
0/0R30/0
Brunson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Adesanya · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Brunson · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Dricus Du PlessisRating 4.7KO/TKO
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
L · KO · R2
Jared CannonierRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · 2022-02
W · Sub · R3
Darren TillRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till · 2021-09
W · Dec · R5
Kevin HollandRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland · 2021-03
W · KO · R3
Edmen ShahbazyanRating 6.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · 2020-08
Adesanya · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Joe PyferRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · KO · R2
Nassourdine ImavovRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
L · Sub · R4
Dricus Du PlessisRating 5.3Submission
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Dec · R5
Sean StricklandRating 6.6Decision
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
W · KO · R2
Alex PereiraRating 7.2KO/TKO
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04