UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
Sydney, Australia
9 Sept 2023
Heavyweight
VS
42%
Tuivasa
58%
Volkov
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:37
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Volkov
This is a genuine toss-up — Tuivasa at 42% vs Volkov at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Tuivasa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: Tuivasa throws more volume but Volkov connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Tuivasa's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Volkov has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Tuivasa
Volkov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'7"
75"
Reach
+80"
33+
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Tuivasa
Volkov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
43.2
60.2
50.4
Performance Avg
54.7
54
Quality of Victory
42
20
Momentum Score
88
Tuivasa
Volkov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.8
55%
Strike Accuracy
58%
9.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
7 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
36
2
Body
5
7
Leg
1
RangeRange
11Distance22
2Clinch2
0Ground18
Tuivasa
Volkov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.3
/ 10
1.8
/ 10
0.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.7
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Tuivasa
Volkov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
60
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
14 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/25 fights
Chin rating based on
19/51 fights
Tuivasa
Volkov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
88
7-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Tuivasa
Volkov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
50%
7
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Tuivasa
Volkov
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
0.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
0.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
1.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.5
TuivasaVolkov
Strike Zones
Tuivasa
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
42 absorbedVolkov
Attacking
42 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Tuivasa targets the legs (54% of attacks) — Volkov absorbs 54% of strikes there
🎯Volkov targets the head (86% of attacks) — Tuivasa absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Tuivasa
RND
Volkov
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Tuivasa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Volkov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Tuivasa · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Louie SutherlandRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Tallison TeixeiraRating 6.7Decision
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
L · Dec · R3
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 6.6Decision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Sub · R1
Marcin TyburaRating 1.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03
L · Sub · R2
Alexander VolkovRating 4Submission
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
Volkov · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 6Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Jailton AlmeidaRating 6.3Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Ciryl GaneRating 7.2Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Sergei PavlovichRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
W · Sub · R2
Tai TuivasaRating 5.7Submission
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09