UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
Kansas City, USA
15 Apr 2017
Women's Strawweight
VS
70%
Namajunas
30%
Waterson-Gomez
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:47
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
"The Karate Hottie"
18 – 13
Well-Rounded5-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox62" reach5'3"
CFR 27
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Namajunas
Namajunas is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Namajunas has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Waterson-Gomez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Namajunas's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Waterson-Gomez has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Namajunas
Waterson-Gomez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"+
Height
5'3"
65"+
Reach
62"
33+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Namajunas
Waterson-Gomez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.2
26.5
55.9
Performance Avg
36.8
51
Quality of Victory
35
100
Momentum Score
0
Namajunas
Waterson-Gomez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.3
41%
Strike Accuracy
50%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
31
Head
1
0
Body
2
2
Leg
5
RangeRange
5Distance8
1Clinch0
27Ground0
Namajunas
Waterson-Gomez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Namajunas
Waterson-Gomez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
42
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
10 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/23 fights
Chin rating based on
15/31 fights
Namajunas
Waterson-Gomez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R5
Namajunas
Waterson-Gomez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
42%
33%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
2
7
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Namajunas
Waterson-Gomez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
3.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
NamajunasWaterson-Gomez
Strike Zones
Namajunas
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedWaterson-Gomez
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Namajunas targets the head (94% of attacks) — Waterson-Gomez absorbs 94% of strikes there
🎯Waterson-Gomez targets the legs (63% of attacks) — Namajunas absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Namajunas
RND
Waterson-Gomez
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Namajunas · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Waterson-Gomez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Namajunas · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Natalia SilvaRating 7Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Miranda MaverickRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R5
Erin BlanchfieldRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
W · Dec · R5
Tracy CortezRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Amanda RibasRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
Waterson-Gomez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gillian RobertsonRating 6.7Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
L · KO · R2
Marina RodriguezRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Luana PinheiroRating 5.5Decision
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
L · Sub · R2
Amanda LemosRating 3.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · Dec · R5
Marina RodriguezRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05