UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
Calgary, Canada
28 Jul 2018
Lightweight
VS
18%
Johnson
82%
Makhachev
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:43
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Makhachev
Makhachev is a strong favourite at 82% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 58 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Makhachev has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.
Makhachev has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Johnson's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Johnson
Makhachev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
75"+
Reach
70"
42
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Johnson
Makhachev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.1
74.5
41.6
Performance Avg
69.8
31
Quality of Victory
53
66
Momentum Score
100
Johnson
Makhachev
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
0.9
42%
Strike Accuracy
60%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
6
3
Body
1
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground6
Johnson
Makhachev
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.8
/ 10
4.6
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
4.7
0
Submission wins
8
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Johnson
Makhachev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
78
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
16 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/36 fights
Chin rating based on
18/29 fights
Johnson
Makhachev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
16-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
Johnson
Makhachev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
65%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
8
3
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Johnson
Makhachev
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.7
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.4
7.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
JohnsonMakhachev
Strike Zones
Johnson
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedMakhachev
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the legs (57% of attacks) — Makhachev absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Makhachev targets the head (86% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Johnson
RND
Makhachev
0/0R00/0
Johnson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Makhachev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Johnson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Rustam KhabilovRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · 2018-09
L · Sub · R1
Islam MakhachevRating 3.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
W · Dec · R3
Stevie RayRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · 2018-03
W · KO · R3
Adriano MartinsRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 · 2017-09
W · Dec · R3
Naoyuki KotaniRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
Makhachev · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 6Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Sub · R1
Renato MoicanoRating 5.8Submission
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R5
Dustin PoirierRating 6.8Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R1
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 6.5KO/TKO
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
W · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 6Decision
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02