METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
Calgary, Canada
28 Jul 2018
Lightweight
VS
18%
Johnson
82%
Makhachev
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:43
★ Official Result
Islam MakhachevwinsSubmissionR1 · 4:43
def. Kajan Johnson · UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Makhachev
→
Actual result
Makhachev wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Makhachev is a strong favourite at 82% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 58 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Makhachev has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.
Risk flags
Johnson's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
JohnsonMakhachev
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Johnson
Makhachev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
75"+
Reach
70"
42
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Johnson
Makhachev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.1
73.9
41.6
Performance Avg
69.4
31
Quality of Victory
53
66
Momentum Score
100
Johnson
Makhachev
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.6
/ 10
3.6
/ 10
3.5
Style: Pressure
7.1
7.1
Style: Volume
5.0
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
6
3
Body
1
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground6
Johnson
Makhachev
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.8
/ 10
4.5
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
4.4
0
Submission wins
8
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Johnson
Makhachev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
78
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
17 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/36 fights
Chin rating based on
19/29 fights
Johnson
Makhachev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
17-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R5
W · KO · R1
Johnson
Makhachev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
61%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
8
3
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Johnson
Makhachev
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.5
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.4
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.1
7.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
JohnsonMakhachev
Strike Zones
Johnson
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedMakhachev
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the legs (57% of attacks) — Makhachev absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Makhachev targets the head (86% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Johnson
RND
Makhachev
0/0R00/0
Johnson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Rustam KhabilovDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · 2018-09
L · Sub · R1
Islam MakhachevSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
W · Dec · R3
Stevie RayDecision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · 2018-03
W · KO · R3
Adriano MartinsKO/TKO
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 · 2017-09
W · Dec · R3
Naoyuki KotaniDecision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
Makhachev · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Ian Machado GarryDecision
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · 2026-08
W · Dec · R5
Jack Della MaddalenaDecision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Sub · R1
Renato MoicanoSubmission
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R5
Dustin PoirierSubmission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R1
Alexander VolkanovskiKO/TKO
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10