UFC Fight Night 3
Las Vegas, USA
16 Jan 2006
Welterweight
VS
51%
Neer
49%
Guillard
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:20
JN
Josh Neer
"The Dentist"
36 – 16
5'11"72" reachOrthodox43 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 18
MG
Melvin Guillard
"The Young Assassin"
32 – 18
Striker43 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Neer

This is a genuine toss-up — Neer at 51% vs Guillard at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Guillard throws more volume but Neer connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Neer's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Guillard has a chin rating of 2 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Neer
Guillard
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
72"+
Reach
71"
43
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Neer
Guillard
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.1
17.7
39.5
Performance Avg
49.7
39
Quality of Victory
45
100
Momentum Score
73
Neer
Guillard
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.6
50%
Strike Accuracy
41%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
5
0
Body
1
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
2Distance6
0Clinch1
1Ground4
Neer
Guillard
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.8
3.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Neer
Guillard
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
2
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
6
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/52 fights
Chin rating based on
22/50 fights
Neer
Guillard
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
73
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Neer
Guillard
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
58%
0
KO / TKO Wins
7
3
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Neer
Guillard
Striking0.8 / 7.0Volume3.5 / 3.8Grappling4.8 / 0.8Wrestling3.4 / 0.6Submission5.0 / 0.0Pressure4.7 / 5.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.0
4.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
3.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
Neer
Strike Zones
Guillard
Neer
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY1LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY5LEGS11 absorbed
Guillard
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY5LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY1LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Neer targets the head (67% of attacks) — Guillard absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Guillard targets the head (45% of attacks) — Neer absorbs 45% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Neer
RND
Guillard
0/0R00/0

Neer · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0101.5L5.0W4.5W5.5L4.0L4.5W5.5L5.2W5.5L5.5L4.2W5.0W1.5L1.5L5.7L2005-082006-082009-082012-062013-02
WinLossTrend

Guillard · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0104.2W1.5L5.0W5.2W1.5L1.5L5.0W4.5W2.8L4.5W5.0W5.0W5.0W5.0W1.5L1.9L4.5W1.5L5.5L5.2W5.6L2005-112008-072011-012012-122014-03
WinLossTrend

Neer · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · 2013-02
L · Sub · R1
Justin EdwardsRating 1.5
Submission
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot · 2012-10
L · KO · R1
Mike PyleRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall · 2012-06
W · Sub · R1
Duane LudwigRating 5
Submission
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller · 2012-01
W · R2
Keith WisniewskiRating 4.2
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson · 2011-10

Guillard · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa · 2014-03
Upcoming
Ross Pearson
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz · 2013-10
W · KO · R2
Mac DanzigRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07
L · Dec · R3
Jamie VarnerRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12
L · KO · R1
Donald CerroneRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II · 2012-08

News & Media

Josh Neer · Melvin Guillard
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