UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2
Las Vegas, USA
15 Mar 2025
Light Heavyweight
VS
45%
Nurgozhay
55%
Ribeiro
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:28
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Ribeiro
This is a genuine toss-up — Nurgozhay at 45% vs Ribeiro at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Ribeiro has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Nurgozhay has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Ribeiro has a chin rating of 20 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Nurgozhay
Ribeiro
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
74"
Reach
+81"
29
Age
29
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Nurgozhay
Ribeiro
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
30.8
38.2
28.3
Performance Avg
33.8
25
Quality of Victory
37
33
Momentum Score
54
Nurgozhay
Ribeiro
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.3
73%
Strike Accuracy
40%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.6
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
1
0
Body
0
1
Leg
4
RangeRange
2Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Nurgozhay
Ribeiro
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nurgozhay
Ribeiro
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
20
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/13 fights
Chin rating based on
7/27 fights
Nurgozhay
Ribeiro
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
54
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Nurgozhay
Ribeiro
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nurgozhay
Ribeiro
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.6
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.4
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
NurgozhayRibeiro
Strike Zones
Nurgozhay
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedRibeiro
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nurgozhay targets the head (50% of attacks) — Ribeiro absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Ribeiro targets the legs (80% of attacks) — Nurgozhay absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nurgozhay
RND
Ribeiro
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Nurgozhay · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.4WinLossTrend
Ribeiro · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Nurgozhay · Last 3
W · Dec · R3
Rafael TobiasRating 4.5Decision
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Ribeiro · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Abdul Rakhman YakhyaevRating 3.8Submission
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W · Dec · R3
Caio MachadoRating 4.5Decision
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