UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez
Elmont, USA
16 Jul 2022
Women's Strawweight
VS
32%
Waterson-Gomez
68%
Lemos
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:48
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
"The Karate Hottie"
18 – 13
5'3"62" reachOrthodox40 yrs5-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 27
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lemos
Lemos holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Waterson-Gomez has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Waterson-Gomez throws more volume but Lemos connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Waterson-Gomez's chin rating of 42 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Lemos has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Waterson-Gomez
Lemos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
+5'4"
62"
Reach
+65"
40
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Waterson-Gomez
Lemos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.5
56.2
36.8
Performance Avg
49.6
35
Quality of Victory
43
0
Momentum Score
85
Waterson-Gomez
Lemos
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.1
50%
Strike Accuracy
56%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
5
5
Body
2
6
Leg
0
RangeRange
13Distance7
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Waterson-Gomez
Lemos
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Waterson-Gomez
Lemos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
42
48
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
14 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/31 fights
Chin rating based on
15/21 fights
Waterson-Gomez
Lemos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
85
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Waterson-Gomez
Lemos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
56%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Waterson-Gomez
Lemos
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.2
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Waterson-GomezLemos
Strike Zones
Waterson-Gomez
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedLemos
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Waterson-Gomez targets the legs (46% of attacks) — Lemos absorbs 46% of strikes there
🎯Lemos targets the head (71% of attacks) — Waterson-Gomez absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Waterson-Gomez
RND
Lemos
0/0R00/0
Waterson-Gomez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Lemos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Waterson-Gomez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gillian RobertsonRating 6.7Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
L · KO · R2
Marina RodriguezRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Luana PinheiroRating 5.5Decision
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
L · Sub · R2
Amanda LemosRating 3.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · Dec · R5
Marina RodriguezRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05
Lemos · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gillian RobertsonRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Tatiana SuarezRating 7.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Iasmin LucindoRating 5.4Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · Sub · R2
Virna JandirobaRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Mackenzie DernRating 5.7Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02