UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
Salt Lake City, USA
29 Jul 2023
Flyweight
VS
87%
Vergara
13%
Salvador
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Vergara
Vergara is a strong favourite at 87% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Vergara has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.
Vergara has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Vergara's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Vergara
Salvador
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
68"
Reach
+70"
34
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Vergara
Salvador
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.6
5.3
36.0
Performance Avg
0.0
35
Quality of Victory
0
30
Momentum Score
0
Vergara
Salvador
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
2.1
56%
Strike Accuracy
40%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
25
Head
27
14
Body
10
5
Leg
1
RangeRange
43Distance38
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Vergara
Salvador
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Vergara
Salvador
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/19 fights
Chin rating based on
3/21 fights
Vergara
Salvador
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Vergara
Salvador
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Vergara
Salvador
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
VergaraSalvador
Strike Zones
Vergara
Attacking
44 landedAbsorbing
38 absorbedSalvador
Attacking
38 landedAbsorbing
44 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Vergara targets the head (57% of attacks) — Salvador absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Salvador targets the head (71% of attacks) — Vergara absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Vergara
RND
Salvador
0/0R00/0
Vergara · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Salvador · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Vergara · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Edgar ChairezRating 2.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · KO · R1
Ramazan TemirovRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Asu AlmabayevRating 6.6Decision
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Vinicius SalvadorRating 4.5Decision
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · KO · R2
Daniel LacerdaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
Salvador · Last 3
L · KO · R1
Adrian YanezRating 2.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
CJ VergaraRating 5.5Decision
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Victor AltamiranoRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03