METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
Salt Lake City, USA
29 Jul 2023
Flyweight
VS
87%
Vergara
13%
Salvador
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
CJ VergarawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Vinicius Salvador · UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Vergara
→
Actual result
Vergara wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Vergara is a strong favourite at 87% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Vergara has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.
Risk flags
Vergara's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
VergaraSalvador
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Vergara
Salvador
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
68"
Reach
+70"
35
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Vergara
Salvador
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.6
5.3
36.0
Performance Avg
0.0
35
Quality of Victory
0
30
Momentum Score
0
Vergara
Salvador
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.1
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
3.5
Style: Pressure
0.0
6.1
Style: Volume
0.0
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
25
Head
27
14
Body
10
5
Leg
1
RangeRange
43Distance38
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Vergara
Salvador
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Vergara
Salvador
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/19 fights
Chin rating based on
3/21 fights
Vergara
Salvador
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Vergara
Salvador
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Vergara
Salvador
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
VergaraSalvador
Strike Zones
Vergara
Attacking
44 landedAbsorbing
38 absorbedSalvador
Attacking
38 landedAbsorbing
44 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Vergara targets the head (57% of attacks) — Salvador absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Salvador targets the head (71% of attacks) — Vergara absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Vergara
RND
Salvador
0/0R00/0
Vergara · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Edgar ChairezSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · KO · R1
Ramazan TemirovKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Asu AlmabayevDecision
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Vinicius SalvadorDecision
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · KO · R2
Daniel LacerdaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
Salvador · Last 3
L · KO · R1
Adrian YanezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
CJ VergaraDecision
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Victor AltamiranoDecision
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03