UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
Inglewood, USA
18 Jan 2025
Bantamweight
VS
68%
Nakamura
32%
Gafurov
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Nakamura
Nakamura holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Gafurov has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Nakamura has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 28 points.
Striking split: Gafurov throws more volume but Nakamura connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Nakamura
Gafurov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
68"
Reach
68"
31
Age
+30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Nakamura
Gafurov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
69.9
32.5
63.5
Performance Avg
31.0
53
Quality of Victory
25
92
Momentum Score
35
Nakamura
Gafurov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.4
55%
Strike Accuracy
49%
6.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
4
4
Body
4
3
Leg
3
RangeRange
11Distance11
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Nakamura
Gafurov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nakamura
Gafurov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
74
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/11 fights
Chin rating based on
5/27 fights
Nakamura
Gafurov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
92
35
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Nakamura
Gafurov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nakamura
Gafurov
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.2
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.8
NakamuraGafurov
Strike Zones
Nakamura
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedGafurov
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nakamura targets the head (42% of attacks) — Gafurov absorbs 42% of strikes there
🎯Gafurov targets the head (36% of attacks) — Nakamura absorbs 36% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nakamura
RND
Gafurov
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Nakamura · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Gafurov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Nakamura · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Nathan FletcherRating 5.7KO/TKO
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L · Sub · R3
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L · Dec · R3
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