★ Championship Bout · Light Heavyweight
UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun
Los Angeles, USA
24 Oct 2009
Light Heavyweight
VS
35%
Machida
65%
Rua
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
LM
Lyoto Machida
"The Dragon"
24 – 8
6'1"74" reachSouthpaw47 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 19
MR
Mauricio Rua
"Shogun"
27 – 14
Striker3-fight slide44 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'1"
CFR 35

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Rua

Rua holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Machida has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Rua has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Machida's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Rua has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Machida
Rua
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
74"
Reach
+76"
47
Age
+44
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Machida
Rua
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.7
35.0
53.8
Performance Avg
49.7
45
Quality of Victory
51
78
Momentum Score
46
Machida
Rua
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.1
54%
Strike Accuracy
55%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.2
7 KOs
KO Finishes
8 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
5
4
Body
0
1
Leg
6
RangeRange
5Distance8
1Clinch3
0Ground0
Machida
Rua
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.7
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Machida
Rua
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
6
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/32 fights
Chin rating based on
24/41 fights
Machida
Rua
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
46
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Machida
Rua
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
73%
7
KO / TKO Wins
8
1
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Machida
Rua
Striking5.7 / 8.2Volume5.3 / 3.1Grappling1.7 / 0.7Wrestling1.2 / 0.5Submission0.6 / 0.0Pressure5.5 / 6.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.2
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.7
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.5
0.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.1
Machida
Strike Zones
Rua
Machida
Attacking
1HEAD4BODY1LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY6LEGS11 absorbed
Rua
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY6LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD4BODY1LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Machida targets the body (67% of attacks) — Rua absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Rua targets the legs (55% of attacks) — Machida absorbs 55% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Machida
RND
Rua
0/0R00/0

Machida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W4.5W4.5W5.2W4.5W5.0W5.1W4.5W1.5L5.5L5.2W3.9L5.2W4.5W5.5L5.0W4.5W6.3L5.0W2.1L2.8L1.8L5.3W5.2W2007-022009-052012-082014-122018-05
WinLossTrend

Rua · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0104.0L5.5W5.0W5.5L5.0W4.5L5.0W5.5L5.4W5.5L1.5L5.0W2.8L2.1L4.5W4.5W5.5W2.7L6.5W4.5W3.5L6.1L1.5L2007-092011-082014-032018-122023-01
WinLossTrend

Machida · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Vitor BelfortRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R5
Eryk AndersRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10
L · KO · R3
Yoel RomeroRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · 2015-06
L · Sub · R2
Luke RockholdRating 2.1
Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04

Rua · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Ihor PotieriaRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
L · Dec · R3
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
L · KO · R2
Paul CraigRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · 2020-11
W · Dec · R3
Rogerio NogueiraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
Upcoming
Paul Craig
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11

News & Media

Lyoto Machida · Mauricio Rua
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