UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
Los Angeles, USA
4 Jun 2016
Middleweight
VS
81%
Casey
19%
Mutapcic
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Casey
Casey is a strong favourite at 81% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
Casey has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Striking split: Mutapcic throws more volume but Casey connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Casey's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Casey
Mutapcic
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
77"+
Reach
72"
44
Age
+39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Casey
Mutapcic
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
9.0
2.1
25.0
Performance Avg
0.0
25
Quality of Victory
0
33
Momentum Score
0
Casey
Mutapcic
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.6
51%
Strike Accuracy
33%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
22
3
Body
5
2
Leg
4
RangeRange
16Distance17
0Clinch8
0Ground6
Casey
Mutapcic
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Casey
Mutapcic
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
76
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/14 fights
Chin rating based on
3/21 fights
Casey
Mutapcic
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
Upcoming
L · KO · R3
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
Casey
Mutapcic
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Casey
Mutapcic
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
CaseyMutapcic
Strike Zones
Casey
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedMutapcic
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Casey targets the head (69% of attacks) — Mutapcic absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Mutapcic targets the head (71% of attacks) — Casey absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Casey
RND
Mutapcic
0/0R00/0
Casey · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.5WinLossTrend
Mutapcic · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Casey · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Sam AlveyRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · 2016-08
Upcoming
Elvis MutapcicDecision
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06
L · KO · R3
Rafael NatalRating 4KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
Upcoming
Antonio Carlos JuniorUFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant · 2015-12
W · Dec · R3
Ildemar AlcantaraRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · 2015-07
Mutapcic · Last 3
L · KO · R2
Anthony SmithRating 3.9KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
Upcoming
Kevin CaseyDecision
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06
L · Dec · R3
Francimar BarrosoRating 5.5Decision
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