UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott
Winnipeg, Canada
18 Apr 2026
Lightweight
VS
11%
Nallo
89%
Herbert
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:05
Mandel
Mandel Nallo
"Mango"
14 – 4
6'0"75" reachOrthodox36 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 6
Jai
Jai Herbert
"Black Country Banger"
14 – 6
Well-Rounded38 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'1"
CFR 50

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Herbert

Herbert is a strong favourite at 89% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 43 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Herbert has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 43 points.

Nallo has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Herbert has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Nallo
Herbert
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
75"
Reach
+77"
36+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nallo
Herbert
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
6.2
49.6
0.0
Performance Avg
43.3
0
Quality of Victory
43
0
Momentum Score
74
Nallo
Herbert
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
6.4
1.5
52%
Strike Accuracy
45%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
18
1
Body
0
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
15Distance7
1Clinch0
0Ground12
Nallo
Herbert
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nallo
Herbert
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
40
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
1/18 fights
Chin rating based on
10/20 fights
Nallo
Herbert
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
74
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Nallo
Herbert
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nallo
Herbert
Striking0.0 / 5.9Volume0.0 / 4.9Grappling0.0 / 1.2Wrestling0.0 / 0.8Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure0.0 / 4.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.9
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
Nallo
Strike Zones
Herbert
Nallo
Attacking
13HEAD1BODY2LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD0BODY1LEGS19 absorbed
Herbert
Attacking
18HEAD0BODY1LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD1BODY2LEGS16 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nallo targets the head (81% of attacks) — Herbert absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Herbert targets the head (95% of attacks) — Nallo absorbs 95% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nallo
RND
Herbert
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
0/0R20/0

Herbert · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.0L3.5L5.0W5.1L4.6W6.7L4.5W7.3L5.0W2020-072022-032024-082026-04
WinLossTrend

Nallo · Last 1

L · KO · R1
Jai HerbertRating 2.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04

Herbert · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Mandel NalloRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Chris PadillaRating 7.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Rolando BedoyaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Fares ZiamRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
Upcoming
Ludovit Klein
Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03

News & Media

Mandel Nallo · Jai Herbert
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