UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
3 Aug 2024
Middleweight
VS
43%
Dumas
57%
Tiuliulin
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Tiuliulin
This is a genuine toss-up — Dumas at 43% vs Tiuliulin at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Tiuliulin has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 30 points.
Tiuliulin has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Dumas's chin rating of 20 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Tiuliulin has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Dumas
Tiuliulin
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'1"
79"+
Reach
77"
30+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Dumas
Tiuliulin
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
27.6
36.6
30.0
Performance Avg
39.7
25
Quality of Victory
55
35
Momentum Score
20
Dumas
Tiuliulin
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
2.6
32%
Strike Accuracy
45%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
6
4
Body
5
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
17Distance13
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Dumas
Tiuliulin
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dumas
Tiuliulin
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
20
30
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/15 fights
Chin rating based on
6/20 fights
Dumas
Tiuliulin
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
35
20
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
Dumas
Tiuliulin
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dumas
Tiuliulin
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
8.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.3
DumasTiuliulin
Strike Zones
Dumas
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTiuliulin
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Dumas targets the head (71% of attacks) — Tiuliulin absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Tiuliulin targets the head (46% of attacks) — Dumas absorbs 46% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dumas
RND
Tiuliulin
0/0R00/0
Dumas · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.7WinLossTrend
Tiuliulin · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Dumas · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Jackson McVeyRating 2.5Submission
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Tiuliulin · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sedriques DumasRating 5.5Decision
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