METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
25 Oct 2025
Bantamweight
VS
50%
Nurmagomedov
50%
Bautista
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Umar NurmagomedovwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Mario Bautista · UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Nurmagomedov
→
Actual result
Nurmagomedov wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Nurmagomedov at 50% vs Bautista at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Bautista has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NurmagomedovBautista
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nurmagomedov
Bautista
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'9"
69"
Reach
69"
30+
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Nurmagomedov
Bautista
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.7
56.3
53.6
Performance Avg
54.5
36
Quality of Victory
38
75
Momentum Score
73
Nurmagomedov
Bautista
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.9
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
5.0
Style: Pressure
5.3
6.6
Style: Volume
6.3
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
3
4
Body
6
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
11Distance8
2Clinch2
2Ground0
Nurmagomedov
Bautista
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.5
/ 10
4.1
/ 10
2.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.9
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
2
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nurmagomedov
Bautista
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
64
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
11 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/21 fights
Chin rating based on
15/20 fights
Nurmagomedov
Bautista
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
73
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Nurmagomedov
Bautista
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
42%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
4
5
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nurmagomedov
Bautista
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.1
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
6.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
NurmagomedovBautista
Strike Zones
Nurmagomedov
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedBautista
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nurmagomedov targets the head (60% of attacks) — Bautista absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Bautista targets the body (60% of attacks) — Nurmagomedov absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nurmagomedov
RND
Bautista
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Nurmagomedov · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Song YadongKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · 2026-08
W · Dec · R3
Deiveson FigueiredoDecision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Mario BautistaDecision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
L · Dec · R5
Merab DvalishviliDecision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Dec · R5
Cory SandhagenDecision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
Bautista · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Cory SandhagenDecision
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Sub · R2
Vinicius OliveiraSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Umar NurmagomedovDecision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Patchy MixDecision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Jose AldoDecision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10