UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
25 Oct 2025
Bantamweight
VS
52%
Nurmagomedov
48%
Bautista
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Umar
Umar Nurmagomedov
20 – 1
5'8"69" reachOrthodox30 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 60
Mario
Mario Bautista
17 – 3
Well-Rounded32 yrsSwitch69" reach5'9"
CFR 57

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nurmagomedov

This is a genuine toss-up — Nurmagomedov at 52% vs Bautista at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Bautista throws more volume but Nurmagomedov connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Bautista has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Nurmagomedov
Bautista
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'9"
69"
Reach
69"
30+
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Nurmagomedov
Bautista
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.4
56.7
57.2
Performance Avg
54.6
36
Quality of Victory
39
75
Momentum Score
73
Nurmagomedov
Bautista
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
2.3
62%
Strike Accuracy
52%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
3
4
Body
6
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
11Distance8
2Clinch2
2Ground0
Nurmagomedov
Bautista
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.5
/ 10
4.2
/ 10
2.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.0
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
3.6
2
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nurmagomedov
Bautista
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
64
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
11 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/21 fights
Chin rating based on
15/20 fights
Nurmagomedov
Bautista
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
73
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Nurmagomedov
Bautista
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
46%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
4
5
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nurmagomedov
Bautista
Striking3.0 / 2.5Volume6.8 / 5.9Grappling3.5 / 4.2Wrestling2.5 / 3.0Submission2.5 / 3.6Pressure5.3 / 5.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.6
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
6.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
Nurmagomedov
Strike Zones
Bautista
Nurmagomedov
Attacking
9HEAD4BODY2LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD6BODY1LEGS10 absorbed
Bautista
Attacking
3HEAD6BODY1LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD4BODY2LEGS15 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nurmagomedov targets the head (60% of attacks) — Bautista absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Bautista targets the body (60% of attacks) — Nurmagomedov absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nurmagomedov
RND
Bautista
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Nurmagomedov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.2W5.3W5.7W5.8W5.6W6.0W6.8L5.6W5.6W2021-012023-012025-012026-01
WinLossTrend

Bautista · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0103.0L4.5W5.2W2.8L4.5W5.3W5.0W5.0W5.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W6.8L6.1W2019-012022-022023-082025-102026-02
WinLossTrend

Nurmagomedov · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Mario BautistaRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
L · Dec · R5
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Dec · R5
Cory SandhagenRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Bekzat AlmakhanRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03

Bautista · Last 5

Upcoming
Cory Sandhagen
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Sub · R2
Vinicius OliveiraRating 6.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Umar NurmagomedovRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Patchy MixRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Jose AldoRating 5
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10

News & Media

Umar Nurmagomedov · Mario Bautista
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