METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare
Sao Paulo, Brazil
16 Nov 2019
Welterweight
VS
43%
Alves
57%
Brown
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:22
★ Official Result
Randy BrownwinsSubmissionR2 · 1:22
def. Warlley Alves · UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Brown
→
Actual result
Brown wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Alves at 43% vs Brown at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Alves has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Risk flags
Alves's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Brown has a chin rating of 4 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AlvesBrown
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Alves
Brown
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'3"
72"
Reach
+78"
35+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alves
Brown
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.1
52.9
49.3
Performance Avg
48.7
49
Quality of Victory
39
30
Momentum Score
92
Alves
Brown
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.5
/ 10
4.1
/ 10
5.9
Style: Pressure
5.4
3.0
Style: Volume
5.3
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
7
0
Body
1
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
1Distance8
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Alves
Brown
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.6
/ 10
2.9
/ 10
2.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.0
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
2.1
3
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Alves
Brown
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
4
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/23 fights
Chin rating based on
22/28 fights
Alves
Brown
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
92
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Alves
Brown
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
4
3
Submission Wins
3
3
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alves
Brown
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.1
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.4
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
AlvesBrown
Strike Zones
Alves
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedBrown
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alves targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Brown targets the head (70% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 70% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alves
RND
Brown
0/0R00/0
Alves · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Abus MagomedovDecision
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L · Dec · R3
Nicolas DalbyDecision
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L · KO · R2
Jeremiah WellsKO/TKO
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W · KO · R1
Mounir LazzezKO/TKO
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Brown · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandDecision
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L · KO · R2
Gabriel BonfimKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · KO · R2
Nicolas DalbyKO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Bryan BattleDecision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosDecision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06