UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare
Sao Paulo, Brazil
16 Nov 2019
Welterweight
VS
43%
Alves
57%
Brown
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:22
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Brown
This is a genuine toss-up — Alves at 43% vs Brown at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Alves has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Brown has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Alves's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Brown has a chin rating of 4 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Alves
Brown
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'3"
72"
Reach
+78"
35
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alves
Brown
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.1
52.9
49.3
Performance Avg
48.7
49
Quality of Victory
39
30
Momentum Score
92
Alves
Brown
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.8
49%
Strike Accuracy
50%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
2 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
7
0
Body
1
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
1Distance8
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Alves
Brown
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alves
Brown
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
4
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/23 fights
Chin rating based on
22/28 fights
Alves
Brown
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
92
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Alves
Brown
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
4
3
Submission Wins
3
3
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alves
Brown
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.1
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.4
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
AlvesBrown
Strike Zones
Alves
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedBrown
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alves targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Brown targets the head (70% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 70% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alves
RND
Brown
0/0R00/0
Alves · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Brown · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Alves · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Abus MagomedovRating 6.3Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 6.1Decision
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