UFC 94: St-Pierre vs Penn 2
Las Vegas, USA
31 Jan 2009
Lightweight
VS
54%
Tavares
46%
Gamburyan
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
TT
Thiago Tavares
21 – 7
5'7"70" reachOrthodox41 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 18
MG
Manvel Gamburyan
"The Anvil"
15 – 10
Well-Rounded2-fight slide45 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'5"
CFR 15

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Tavares

This is a genuine toss-up — Tavares at 54% vs Gamburyan at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Tavares has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Tavares's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Gamburyan has a chin rating of 14 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Tavares
Gamburyan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'5"
70"+
Reach
67"
41+
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Tavares
Gamburyan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.0
15.1
48.8
Performance Avg
40.4
42
Quality of Victory
39
81
Momentum Score
63
Tavares
Gamburyan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.7
44%
Strike Accuracy
37%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
11
3
Body
1
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
14Distance14
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Tavares
Gamburyan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
3.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Tavares
Gamburyan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
14
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
5
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/28 fights
Chin rating based on
15/25 fights
Tavares
Gamburyan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
63
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Tavares
Gamburyan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tavares
Gamburyan
Striking2.2 / 0.9Volume4.4 / 4.9Grappling5.0 / 5.2Wrestling3.5 / 3.6Submission5.0 / 5.0Pressure6.0 / 4.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
5.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
3.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
4.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
Tavares
Strike Zones
Gamburyan
Tavares
Attacking
12HEAD3BODY0LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD1BODY3LEGS15 absorbed
Gamburyan
Attacking
11HEAD1BODY3LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD3BODY0LEGS15 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Tavares targets the head (80% of attacks) — Gamburyan absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Gamburyan targets the head (73% of attacks) — Tavares absorbs 73% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Tavares
RND
Gamburyan
0/0R00/0

Tavares · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W5.2W5.5L4.5W2.8L5.5L4.5W5.0W2.8L5.2W4.5W1.5L5.0W5.0W5.4L5.5W3.3L2007-042008-092012-012015-112016-07
WinLossTrend

Gamburyan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0102.8L5.0W5.0W1.5L5.5L5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L5.5W4.5W1.5L2.8L2007-062009-012013-082016-042016-11
WinLossTrend

Tavares · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Dooho ChoiRating 3.3
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale · 2016-07
W · Sub · R1
Clay GuidaRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
L · KO · R3
Brian OrtegaRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
W · Sub · R1
Robert PeraltaRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux · 2014-08
W · Sub · R1
Justin SalasRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · 2013-11

Gamburyan · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Johnny EduardoRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
L · KO · R1
John DodsonRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans · 2016-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott JorgensenRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · 2015-07
W · Sub · R2
Cody GibsonRating 5.5
Submission
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Nik LentzRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05

News & Media

Thiago Tavares · Manvel Gamburyan
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