UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
Santiago, Chile
19 May 2018
Bantamweight
VS
53%
Briones
47%
Saenz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Briones
This is a genuine toss-up — Briones at 53% vs Saenz at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Briones has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Saenz has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Briones's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Saenz has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Briones
Saenz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'6"
69"+
Reach
66"
45
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Briones
Saenz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.5
13.7
37.7
Performance Avg
35.0
50
Quality of Victory
25
33
Momentum Score
75
Briones
Saenz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.1
38%
Strike Accuracy
48%
0.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
13
4
Body
2
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
7Distance5
1Clinch4
0Ground7
Briones
Saenz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
8.0
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
5.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
10.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Briones
Saenz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
30
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/24 fights
Chin rating based on
10/20 fights
Briones
Saenz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
75
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Briones
Saenz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Briones
Saenz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
0.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
BrionesSaenz
Strike Zones
Briones
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedSaenz
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Briones targets the body (50% of attacks) — Saenz absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Saenz targets the head (81% of attacks) — Briones absorbs 81% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Briones
RND
Saenz
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Briones · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Saenz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Briones · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Frankie SaenzRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman · 2018-05
L · Sub · R1
Rani YahyaRating 1.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08
L · KO · R3
Douglas Silva de AndradeRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Cody GarbrandtRating 6.6Decision
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
W · Sub · R2
Guido CannettiRating 5.2Submission
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt · 2014-11
Saenz · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Jonathan MartinezRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · 2020-08
L · KO · R1
Marlon VeraRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Henry BrionesRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman · 2018-05
W · Dec · R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · 2017-12
L · Dec · R3
Augusto MendesRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01