UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez
Las Vegas, USA
7 Jul 2016
Lightweight
VS
96%
Burns
4%
Sajewski
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:57
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Burns
Burns is a strong favourite at 96% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Burns has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 40 points.
Striking split: Sajewski throws more volume but Burns connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Burns's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sajewski has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Burns
Sajewski
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
71"
Reach
71"
39
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Burns
Sajewski
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.8
1.8
48.1
Performance Avg
0.0
40
Quality of Victory
0
28
Momentum Score
0
Burns
Sajewski
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.5
49%
Strike Accuracy
36%
3.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
8
5
Body
5
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance12
4Clinch2
3Ground0
Burns
Sajewski
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.8
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
5
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Burns
Sajewski
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
64
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/32 fights
Chin rating based on
3/16 fights
Burns
Sajewski
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
0
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Burns
Sajewski
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Burns
Sajewski
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
BurnsSajewski
Strike Zones
Burns
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedSajewski
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Burns targets the head (62% of attacks) — Sajewski absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Sajewski targets the head (57% of attacks) — Burns absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Burns
RND
Sajewski
0/0R00/0
Burns · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Sajewski · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.4WinLossTrend
Burns · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Mike MalottRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Michael MoralesRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · Dec · R5
Sean BradyRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R3
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
Sajewski · Last 3
L · KO · R2
Marc DiakieseRating 2.9KO/TKO
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · 2016-10
L · Sub · R1
Gilbert BurnsRating 1.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
L · Dec · R3
Nick HeinRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne · 2015-06