UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2
Las Vegas, USA
10 Aug 2024
Featherweight
VS
42%
Jackson
58%
Mariscal
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Damon
Damon Jackson
"The Leech"
23 – 8
5'11"71" reachSwitch37 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 41
Chepe
Chepe Mariscal
"Machine Gun"
18 – 7
Well-Rounded33 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'7"
CFR 57

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Mariscal

This is a genuine toss-up — Jackson at 42% vs Mariscal at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Mariscal has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Jackson's chin rating of 28 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Jackson
Mariscal
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'7"
71"+
Reach
69"
37
Age
+33
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Jackson
Mariscal
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.5
56.9
43.0
Performance Avg
51.9
38
Quality of Victory
31
59
Momentum Score
80
Jackson
Mariscal
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.3
43%
Strike Accuracy
55%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
17
4
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance4
5Clinch3
0Ground12
Jackson
Mariscal
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.6
Sub Attempts / fight
0.6
3.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.9
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Jackson
Mariscal
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
28
98
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/31 fights
Chin rating based on
6/25 fights
Jackson
Mariscal
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
80
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Jackson
Mariscal
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
20%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Jackson
Mariscal
Striking2.7 / 3.7Volume5.0 / 8.1Grappling3.9 / 1.9Wrestling2.7 / 1.3Submission3.3 / 0.0Pressure5.0 / 3.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.7
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.1
Jackson
Strike Zones
Mariscal
Jackson
Attacking
2HEAD4BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD2BODY0LEGS19 absorbed
Mariscal
Attacking
17HEAD2BODY0LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD4BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Jackson targets the body (67% of attacks) — Mariscal absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Mariscal targets the head (89% of attacks) — Jackson absorbs 89% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Jackson
RND
Mariscal
0/0R00/0

Jackson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0102.8L5.5W3.9L4.5W5.2W4.5W6.0W3.4L6.7L5.4W6.6L1.9L2014-082021-102022-092024-042024-11
WinLossTrend

Mariscal · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.8W6.1W5.7W4.8W4.6W6.5L2023-062023-092024-042024-082025-032025-11
WinLossTrend

Jackson · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Jim MillerRating 1.9
Submission
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Chepe MariscalRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04
L · Dec · R3
Billy QuarantilloRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · 2023-08
L · KO · R2
Dan IgeRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · 2023-01

Mariscal · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Pat SabatiniRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Ricardo RamosRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Damon JacksonRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Morgan CharriereRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Jack JenkinsRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09

News & Media

Damon Jackson · Chepe Mariscal
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