Bryce Mitchell vs Said Nurmagomedov — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder

Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

26 Jul 2025

Bantamweight

47%

Mitchell

53%

Nurmagomedov

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Bryce Mitchell

"Thug Nasty"

18 – 4

5'10"70" reachSouthpaw31 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded

CFR 57

Said Nurmagomedov

18 – 5

Well-Rounded2-fight slide34 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'8"

CFR 64

★ Official Result

Bryce MitchellwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Said Nurmagomedov · UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Nurmagomedov

→

Actual result

Mitchell wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Mitchell at 47% vs Nurmagomedov at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Nurmagomedov has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.

Risk flags

Mitchell's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

MitchellNurmagomedov

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Mitchell

Nurmagomedov

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'10"+

Height

5'8"

70"

Reach

70"

31+

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

Mitchell

Nurmagomedov

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

57.3

63.8

50.2

Performance Avg

53.5

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

Mitchell

Nurmagomedov

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.5

/ 10

4.1

/ 10

4.4

Style: Pressure

6.9

7.1

Style: Volume

3.6

1 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

2 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

0Distance1

0Clinch0

0Ground1

Mitchell

Nurmagomedov

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.3

/ 10

4.1

/ 10

2.3

Wrestling Style (/10)

2.9

2.0

Submission Style (/10)

4.3

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Mitchell

Nurmagomedov

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

Never stopped

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.0 stoppage

KO round context

—

4 fights ago

Last KO loss

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

13/22 fights

Chin rating based on

11/23 fights

Mitchell

Nurmagomedov

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

2-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

2-fight 📉 slide

W · Sub · R3

W · Dec · R3

L · Sub · R2

W · KO · R3

L · KO · R1

Last 5

L · Dec · R3

W · Sub · R1

L · Dec · R3

W · Sub · R2

Mitchell

Nurmagomedov

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

30%

71%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Mitchell

Nurmagomedov

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

2.5

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

4.1

3.3

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

4.1

2.3

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

2.9

2.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

4.3

4.4

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

6.9

7.1

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

3.6

Mitchell

Strike Zones

Nurmagomedov

Mitchell

Attacking

0 landed

Absorbing

2 absorbed

Nurmagomedov

Attacking

2 landed

Absorbing

0 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Nurmagomedov targets the head (100% of attacks) — Mitchell absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Mitchell

RND

Nurmagomedov

0/0R00/0

0/0R10/0

Mitchell · Last 5

W · Sub · R3

Santiago Luna

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06

W · Dec · R3

Said Nurmagomedov

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07

L · Sub · R2

Jean Silva

Submission

UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04

W · KO · R3

Kron Gracie

KO/TKO

UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12

L · KO · R1

Josh Emmett

KO/TKO

UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12

Nurmagomedov · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Bryce Mitchell

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07

L · Dec · R3

Vinicius Oliveira

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02

W · Sub · R1

Muin Gafurov

Submission

UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10

L · Dec · R3

Jonathan Martinez

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03

W · Sub · R2

Saidyokub Kakhramonov

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12

News & Media

Bryce Mitchell · Said Nurmagomedov

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