UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
26 Jul 2025
Bantamweight
VS
47%
Mitchell
53%
Nurmagomedov
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Nurmagomedov
This is a genuine toss-up — Mitchell at 47% vs Nurmagomedov at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Nurmagomedov has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Nurmagomedov has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Mitchell's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Mitchell
Nurmagomedov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
70"
Reach
70"
31+
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Mitchell
Nurmagomedov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.7
63.8
48.6
Performance Avg
53.5
31
Quality of Victory
47
100
Momentum Score
87
Mitchell
Nurmagomedov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.2
55%
Strike Accuracy
55%
2.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
2
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Mitchell
Nurmagomedov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.1
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Mitchell
Nurmagomedov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
92
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/22 fights
Chin rating based on
11/23 fights
Mitchell
Nurmagomedov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
87
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Mitchell
Nurmagomedov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
22%
71%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
3
7
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Mitchell
Nurmagomedov
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.1
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.3
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
MitchellNurmagomedov
Strike Zones
Mitchell
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedNurmagomedov
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nurmagomedov targets the head (100% of attacks) — Mitchell absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Mitchell
RND
Nurmagomedov
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Mitchell · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Nurmagomedov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Mitchell · Last 5
Upcoming
Victor HenryUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Said NurmagomedovRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · Sub · R2
Jean SilvaRating 4.3Submission
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · KO · R3
Kron GracieRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · KO · R1
Josh EmmettRating 1.6KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
Nurmagomedov · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Bryce MitchellRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · Dec · R3
Vinicius OliveiraRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
W · Sub · R1
Muin GafurovRating 5Submission
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan MartinezRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03
W · Sub · R2
Saidyokub KakhramonovRating 5.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12