★ Championship Bout · Featherweight
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
Miami, USA
12 Apr 2025
Featherweight
VS
51%
Volkanovski
49%
Lopes
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Alexander
Alexander Volkanovski
"The Great"
28 – 4
5'6"71" reachOrthodox37 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 64
Diego
Diego Lopes
27 – 8
Well-Rounded31 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"
CFR 61

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Volkanovski

This is a genuine toss-up — Volkanovski at 51% vs Lopes at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Volkanovski has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Volkanovski's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Volkanovski
Lopes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
+72"
37
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Volkanovski
Lopes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.0
61.4
59.8
Performance Avg
55.6
44
Quality of Victory
48
100
Momentum Score
69
Volkanovski
Lopes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.3
61%
Strike Accuracy
49%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.3
5 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
40
Head
9
3
Body
2
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
40Distance13
3Clinch1
0Ground0
Volkanovski
Lopes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Volkanovski
Lopes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
94
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/32 fights
Chin rating based on
10/35 fights
Volkanovski
Lopes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
69
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Volkanovski
Lopes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
67%
5
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
1
10
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Volkanovski
Lopes
Striking5.0 / 6.3Volume7.0 / 4.0Grappling1.6 / 2.1Wrestling1.1 / 1.5Submission0.0 / 1.7Pressure4.8 / 6.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.3
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
Volkanovski
Strike Zones
Lopes
Volkanovski
Attacking
40HEAD3BODY0LEGS43 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD2BODY3LEGS14 absorbed
Lopes
Attacking
9HEAD2BODY3LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
40HEAD3BODY0LEGS43 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Volkanovski targets the head (93% of attacks) — Lopes absorbs 93% of strikes there
🎯Lopes targets the head (64% of attacks) — Volkanovski absorbs 64% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Volkanovski
RND
Lopes
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Volkanovski · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.2W4.5W4.5W5.2W5.0W5.2W5.0W5.6W5.6W5.9W5.9W5.6W7.5L6.8W3.5L4.5L5.8W5.8W2016-112018-122022-042024-022026-01
WinLossTrend

Lopes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.2
0106.8L5.0W6.0W5.8W5.2W5.9W7.0L6.7W7.0L2023-052024-042025-042026-01
WinLossTrend

Volkanovski · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Diego LopesRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
W · Dec · R5
Diego LopesRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
L · KO · R2
Ilia TopuriaRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Islam MakhachevRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
W · KO · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 6.8
KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07

Lopes · Last 5

Upcoming
Steve Garcia
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
L · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 7
Decision
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
W · KO · R2
Jean SilvaRating 6.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 7
Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Brian OrtegaRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09

News & Media

Alexander Volkanovski · Diego Lopes
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