UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
Auburn Hills, USA
20 Nov 2010
Lightweight
VS
91%
Kelly
9%
O'Brien
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:16
PK
Paul Kelly
14 – 5
5'9"70" reachOrthodox41 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 19
TO
TJ O'Brien
"The Spider"
20 – 8
Well-Rounded2-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox6'2"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Kelly

Kelly is a strong favourite at 91% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Kelly has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 36 points.

Striking split: Kelly throws more volume but O'Brien connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Kelly's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

O'Brien has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Kelly
O'Brien
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'2"
70"
Reach
41
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kelly
O'Brien
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.1
1.8
43.8
Performance Avg
0.0
36
Quality of Victory
0
99
Momentum Score
0
Kelly
O'Brien
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.2
41%
Strike Accuracy
55%
3.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
27
Head
9
0
Body
1
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
2Distance10
0Clinch0
25Ground3
Kelly
O'Brien
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.5
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Kelly
O'Brien
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
66
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/19 fights
Chin rating based on
2/28 fights
Kelly
O'Brien
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
99
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Kelly
O'Brien
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Kelly
O'Brien
Striking3.1 / 0.0Volume5.9 / 0.0Grappling3.0 / 0.0Wrestling2.1 / 0.0Submission2.0 / 0.0Pressure4.5 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Kelly
Strike Zones
O'Brien
Kelly
Attacking
27HEAD0BODY0LEGS27 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD1BODY3LEGS13 absorbed
O'Brien
Attacking
9HEAD1BODY3LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
27HEAD0BODY0LEGS27 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Kelly targets the head (100% of attacks) — O'Brien absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯O'Brien targets the head (69% of attacks) — Kelly absorbs 69% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Kelly
RND
O'Brien
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Kelly · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0104.5W2.8L4.5W4.5W2.8L5.2W5.5L5.2W2.8L2008-012009-062010-082011-02
WinLossTrend

O'Brien · QOF Timeline

Avg: 2.8
0102.8L2.8L2010-112011-08
WinLossTrend

Kelly · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Donald CerroneRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort · 2011-02
W · KO · R2
TJ O'BrienRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · 2010-11
L · Dec · R3
Jacob VolkmannRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko · 2010-08
W · Sub · R2
Matt VeachRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 112: Invincible · 2010-04
L · KO · R2
Dennis SiverRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11

O'Brien · Last 2

L · Sub · R2
Cole MillerRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · 2011-08
L · KO · R2
Paul KellyRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · 2010-11

News & Media

Paul Kelly · TJ O'Brien
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