METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
Auburn Hills, USA
20 Nov 2010
Lightweight
VS
91%
Kelly
9%
O'Brien
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:16
★ Official Result
Paul KellywinsKO/TKOR2 · 3:16
def. TJ O'Brien · UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Kelly
→
Actual result
Kelly wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Kelly is a strong favourite at 91% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Kelly has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 36 points.
Risk flags
Kelly's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
O'Brien has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
KellyO'Brien
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Kelly
O'Brien
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'2"
70"
Reach
41
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kelly
O'Brien
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.1
1.8
43.8
Performance Avg
0.0
36
Quality of Victory
0
99
Momentum Score
0
Kelly
O'Brien
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.1
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
4.5
Style: Pressure
0.0
5.9
Style: Volume
0.0
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
27
Head
9
0
Body
1
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
2Distance10
0Clinch0
25Ground3
Kelly
O'Brien
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Kelly
O'Brien
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
66
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/19 fights
Chin rating based on
2/28 fights
Kelly
O'Brien
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
99
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Kelly
O'Brien
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kelly
O'Brien
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
KellyO'Brien
Strike Zones
Kelly
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedO'Brien
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kelly targets the head (100% of attacks) — O'Brien absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯O'Brien targets the head (69% of attacks) — Kelly absorbs 69% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kelly
RND
O'Brien
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Kelly · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Donald CerroneSubmission
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort · 2011-02
W · KO · R2
TJ O'BrienKO/TKO
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · 2010-11
L · Dec · R3
Jacob VolkmannDecision
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko · 2010-08
W · Sub · R2
Matt VeachSubmission
UFC 112: Invincible · 2010-04
L · KO · R2
Dennis SiverKO/TKO
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11
O'Brien · Last 2
L · Sub · R2
Cole MillerSubmission
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · 2011-08
L · KO · R2
Paul KellyKO/TKO
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · 2010-11