UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson
Austin, USA
22 Nov 2014
Women's Strawweight
VS
60%
VanZant
40%
Curran
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 2:54
PV
Paige VanZant
"12 Gauge"
8 – 5
5'4"65" reachOrthodox32 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 21
KC
Kailin Curran
4 – 5
Submission Hunter4-fight slide35 yrsOrthodox65" reach5'4"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: VanZant

VanZant holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Curran has real paths to victory.

Key angles

Striking split: Curran throws more volume but VanZant connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

VanZant's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Curran has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.

VanZant
Curran
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
5'4"
65"
Reach
65"
32+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
VanZant
Curran
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.6
13.7
49.2
Performance Avg
35.4
45
Quality of Victory
50
84
Momentum Score
20
VanZant
Curran
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.4
58%
Strike Accuracy
43%
5.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
2
1
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
7Clinch4
11Ground0
VanZant
Curran
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
VanZant
Curran
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
48
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/13 fights
Chin rating based on
7/9 fights
VanZant
Curran
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
20
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
VanZant
Curran
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

VanZant
Curran
Striking5.1 / 0.3Volume2.7 / 0.3Grappling3.7 / 8.0Wrestling2.6 / 5.6Submission4.0 / 10.0Pressure7.3 / 7.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.3
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.4
2.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.3
VanZant
Strike Zones
Curran
VanZant
Attacking
18HEAD1BODY0LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD3BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Curran
Attacking
2HEAD3BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD1BODY0LEGS19 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯VanZant targets the head (95% of attacks) — Curran absorbs 95% of strikes there
🎯Curran targets the body (60% of attacks) — VanZant absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

VanZant
RND
Curran
0/0R00/0

VanZant · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.5W4.5W5.5W5.4L5.2W1.5L5.5L5.2W1.6L2014-112015-122018-012020-07
WinLossTrend

Curran · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0104.0L4.0L5.2W1.5L5.5L5.5L6.5L2014-112015-122016-122017-11
WinLossTrend

VanZant · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Amanda RibasRating 1.6
Submission
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · Sub · R2
Rachael OstovichRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
L · Dec · R3
Jessica-Rose ClarkRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi · 2018-01
L · Sub · R1
Michelle Waterson-GomezRating 1.5
Submission
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
W · KO · R2
Bec RawlingsRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · 2016-08

Curran · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Yan XiaonanRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Gastelum · 2017-11
L · Dec · R3
Aleksandra AlbuRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · 2017-07
L · Dec · R3
Jamie MoyleRating 5.5
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
L · Sub · R1
Felice HerrigRating 1.5
Submission
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko · 2016-07
W · Sub · R2
Emily KaganRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant · 2015-12

News & Media

Paige VanZant · Kailin Curran
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