UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
Chicago, USA
28 Jan 2012
Lightweight
VS
50%
Dunham
50%
Lentz
Win Probability
ED
Evan Dunham
18 – 9
5'10"70" reachSouthpaw44 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 16
NL
Nik Lentz
"The Carny"
30 – 12
Well-Rounded3-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'8"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Dunham

This is a genuine toss-up — Dunham at 50% vs Lentz at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Dunham throws more volume but Lentz connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Dunham's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Lentz has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Dunham
Lentz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
70"+
Reach
68"
44
Age
+41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Dunham
Lentz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.2
16.0
40.1
Performance Avg
45.3
30
Quality of Victory
35
100
Momentum Score
53
Dunham
Lentz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
1.1
41%
Strike Accuracy
44%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
35
Head
17
1
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
16Distance8
13Clinch12
7Ground0
Dunham
Lentz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dunham
Lentz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
52
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/27 fights
Chin rating based on
25/42 fights
Dunham
Lentz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
53
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Dunham
Lentz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
18%
36%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
2
9
Decision Wins
9

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Dunham
Lentz
Striking2.0 / 3.4Volume6.9 / 6.4Grappling2.5 / 2.7Wrestling1.7 / 1.9Submission0.9 / 1.4Pressure2.9 / 4.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
2.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.3
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.4
Dunham
Strike Zones
Lentz
Dunham
Attacking
35HEAD1BODY0LEGS36 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD2BODY1LEGS20 absorbed
Lentz
Attacking
17HEAD2BODY1LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
35HEAD1BODY0LEGS36 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Dunham targets the head (97% of attacks) — Lentz absorbs 97% of strikes there
🎯Lentz targets the head (85% of attacks) — Dunham absorbs 85% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Dunham
RND
Lentz
0/0R00/0

Dunham · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0105.0W4.5W5.5W4.5W5.5L1.5L4.5W4.2W5.5L4.5W5.7L2.8L2.0L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.6W1.5L2.8L1.9L2009-022011-012013-052015-122020-06
WinLossTrend

Lentz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W5.5L4.8L5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.4L4.5W5.2W7.5L5.2W5.5L5.2W4.5W4.2L6.9L6.8L2009-092012-012015-052018-102021-01
WinLossTrend

Dunham · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Herbert BurnsRating 1.9
Submission
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06
L · KO · R2
Francisco TrinaldoRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · KO · R1
Olivier Aubin-MercierRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
Upcoming
Beneil Dariush
Decision
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10
W · Dec · R3
Ricky GlennRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · 2016-09

Lentz · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
L · Dec · R3
Arnold AllenRating 6.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · 2020-01
L · KO · R2
Charles OliveiraRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
W · KO · R2
Gray MaynardRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10

News & Media

Evan Dunham · Nik Lentz
← Back to fights