UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
Buffalo, USA
8 Apr 2017
Light Heavyweight
VS
21%
Cummins
79%
Blachowicz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
PC
Patrick Cummins
"Durkin"
10 – 7
6'2"76" reachOrthodox45 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 13
Jan
Jan Blachowicz
29 – 11
Well-Rounded2-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'2"
CFR 46

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Blachowicz

Blachowicz is a strong favourite at 79% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Blachowicz has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.

Cummins has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Cummins's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Blachowicz has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Cummins
Blachowicz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
76"
Reach
+78"
45
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Cummins
Blachowicz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
12.7
46.4
39.0
Performance Avg
53.0
34
Quality of Victory
48
45
Momentum Score
20
Cummins
Blachowicz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.3
54%
Strike Accuracy
51%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
34
Head
6
2
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
8Distance7
11Clinch0
17Ground2
Cummins
Blachowicz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
2.3
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.7
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Cummins
Blachowicz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
54
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
11 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/17 fights
Chin rating based on
22/40 fights
Cummins
Blachowicz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
20
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · KO · R3
Cummins
Blachowicz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
58%
2
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Cummins
Blachowicz
Striking4.3 / 5.4Volume6.3 / 4.5Grappling1.6 / 2.3Wrestling1.1 / 1.6Submission0.0 / 1.7Pressure3.7 / 5.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.4
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.3
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
3.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.9
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
Cummins
Strike Zones
Blachowicz
Cummins
Attacking
34HEAD2BODY0LEGS36 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD2BODY1LEGS9 absorbed
Blachowicz
Attacking
6HEAD2BODY1LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
34HEAD2BODY0LEGS36 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Cummins targets the head (94% of attacks) — Blachowicz absorbs 94% of strikes there
🎯Blachowicz targets the head (67% of attacks) — Cummins absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Cummins
RND
Blachowicz
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Cummins · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.6
0101.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W2.1L5.5W3.1L1.5L5.1W4.5W5.5L1.5L1.7L2014-022015-042017-042019-05
WinLossTrend

Blachowicz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.0W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.5L5.5L5.2W5.5W4.5W6.5W2.8L5.3W4.5W5.0W6.2W5.9W2.5L5.4W7.6L7.4L2014-102017-042019-022021-032025-03
WinLossTrend

Cummins · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Ed HermanRating 1.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
L · Sub · R1
Misha CirkunovRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith · 2018-10
L · Dec · R3
Corey AndersonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Gian VillanteRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
W · Dec · R3
Jan BlachowiczRating 5.1
Decision
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · 2017-04

Blachowicz · Last 5

Upcoming
Bogdan Guskov
Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Carlos UlbergRating 7.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Alex PereiraRating 7.6
Decision
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
Upcoming
Magomed Ankalaev
Decision
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12
W · KO · R3
Aleksandar RakicRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05

News & Media

Patrick Cummins · Jan Blachowicz
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