METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Sixteen recorded UFC fights against one, a 7.6cm reach edge, and an opponent the model has no numbers for at all.
Sixteen recorded UFC fights against one. That is the whole shape of this bout before anyone throws a punch, and it is worth stating plainly that the model has almost nothing to say about Eduardo Chapolin. His composite rating of 7.0 is not a verdict on his ability; it is an admission of ignorance. Every style score he carries — striking, grappling, wrestling, submission, pressure, volume — reads 0…
Johnson (19-8) arrived 2-2 in his previous four, beating Bruno Silva on the cards in March 2026 and stopping Lone'er Kavanagh in the second in August 2025, with a first-round knockout loss to Alex Perez and a third-round submission loss to Asu Almabayev against him. At 35 he was the older man by five years, with sixteen UFC fights recorded and a 56.0 chin rating that reflects a genuinely tested career.
Chapolin (15-3) came in with one recorded UFC fight and a metric profile that is almost entirely blank — 0.0 across every style score, 0.0 performance average, 0.0 quality of victory. His 7.0 composite is a statement about sample size, not about him. At 30 he was the younger man, and the smaller one at 170.2cm in both height and reach.
Sixteen recorded UFC fights against one — the pack simply cannot rate Chapolin
A 7.6cm reach edge and five centimetres of height for Johnson at a catch weight
Johnson's 5.57 volume as the only demonstrated path to winning rounds
A seven-week turnaround for Johnson after being submitted in the third by Asu Almabayev
Chapolin's 88.0 chin rating resting entirely on one fight
Chapolin's 15-3 professional record is real and completely unmodelled here; a 7.0 composite could understate him by any margin
Johnson's 56.0 chin and a first-round knockout loss to Alex Perez in January mean he can be taken out early by anyone who lands
Johnson's 2.22 grappling had just been exposed against Almabayev, and a short camp does not fix that
This Fight — Statistics
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown