UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3
Houston, USA
19 Oct 2013
Heavyweight
VS
58%
Cormier
42%
Nelson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DC
Daniel Cormier
"DC"
22 – 3
5'11"72" reachOrthodox47 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 26
RN
Roy Nelson
"Big Country"
22 – 14
Knockout Artist49 yrsOrthodox73" reach6'0"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Cormier

This is a genuine toss-up — Cormier at 58% vs Nelson at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Cormier has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Nelson has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Cormier
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
72"
Reach
+73"
47+
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Cormier
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.9
18.5
68.1
Performance Avg
55.6
61
Quality of Victory
61
100
Momentum Score
26
Cormier
Nelson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.0
55%
Strike Accuracy
40%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.8
3 KOs
KO Finishes
8 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
6
3
Body
0
7
Leg
2
RangeRange
30Distance8
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Cormier
Nelson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.8
/ 10
0.3
/ 10
2.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.2
3.6
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Cormier
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
60
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R4.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/25 fights
Chin rating based on
19/36 fights
Cormier
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
26
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R4
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Cormier
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
89%
3
KO / TKO Wins
8
4
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Cormier
Nelson
Striking4.3 / 9.8Volume4.5 / 1.8Grappling3.8 / 0.3Wrestling2.6 / 0.2Submission3.6 / 0.0Pressure6.8 / 7.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.8
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.3
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.2
3.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.6
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.8
Cormier
Strike Zones
Nelson
Cormier
Attacking
21HEAD3BODY7LEGS31 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY2LEGS8 absorbed
Nelson
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY2LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD3BODY7LEGS31 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Cormier targets the head (68% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 68% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the head (75% of attacks) — Cormier absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Cormier
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0

Cormier · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.5W4.5W5.0W5.5W7.3L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.1W5.9W6.1W6.3W4.4L6.6L2013-042015-012017-042019-082020-08
WinLossTrend

Nelson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.0W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.5W5.5L5.0W5.0W5.0W6.6L5.5L5.0W2.1L5.5L5.5L4.5W6.7L5.2W6.8L2009-122012-022013-102016-022017-04
WinLossTrend

Cormier · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Stipe MiocicRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08
L · KO · R4
Stipe MiocicRating 4.4
KO/TKO
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
W · Sub · R2
Derrick LewisRating 6.3
Submission
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · 2018-11
W · KO · R1
Stipe MiocicRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier · 2018-07
W · KO · R2
Volkan OezdemirRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2018-01

Nelson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8
Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04
W · KO · R2
Antonio SilvaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09
L · Dec · R3
Derrick LewisRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
W · Dec · R3
Jared RosholtRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
L · Dec · R5
Josh BarnettRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09

News & Media

Daniel Cormier · Roy Nelson
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