UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai
Las Vegas, USA
5 Sept 2020
Middleweight
VS
81%
Muniz
19%
Fabinski
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:42
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Muniz
Muniz is a strong favourite at 81% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 41 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Muniz has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Striking split: Muniz throws more volume but Fabinski connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Muniz's chin rating of 22 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Fabinski has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Muniz
Fabinski
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
78"+
Reach
75"
36+
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Muniz
Fabinski
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
53.7
12.6
47.7
Performance Avg
35.0
40
Quality of Victory
25
92
Momentum Score
45
Muniz
Fabinski
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.1
46%
Strike Accuracy
70%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
3
2
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance1
2Clinch4
0Ground0
Muniz
Fabinski
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Muniz
Fabinski
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
22
64
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/32 fights
Chin rating based on
6/20 fights
Muniz
Fabinski
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
92
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Muniz
Fabinski
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Muniz
Fabinski
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
MunizFabinski
Strike Zones
Muniz
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedFabinski
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Muniz targets the head (50% of attacks) — Fabinski absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Fabinski targets the head (60% of attacks) — Muniz absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Muniz
RND
Fabinski
0/0R00/0
Muniz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Fabinski · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.3WinLossTrend
Muniz · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Edmen ShahbazyanRating 2.9KO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Ikram AliskerovRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
JunYong ParkRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
L · KO · R2
Paul CraigRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
L · Sub · R3
Brendan AllenRating 5.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · 2023-02
Fabinski · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Gerald MeerschaertRating 2.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · 2021-04
L · Sub · R1
Andre MunizRating 2.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · 2020-09
L · Sub · R1
Michel PrazeresRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio · 2018-11
W · Dec · R3
Emil MeekRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith · 2018-07
W · Dec · R3
Hector UrbinaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum · 2015-11