UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
Chicago, USA
9 Jun 2018
Lightweight
VS
41%
Guida
59%
Oliveira
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:18
Clay
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38 – 22
5'7"70" reachOrthodox44 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 44
Charles
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
37 – 11
Pressure Fighter2-fight win streak36 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'10"
CFR 63

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Oliveira

This is a genuine toss-up — Guida at 41% vs Oliveira at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Oliveira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.

Oliveira has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Guida's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Oliveira has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Guida
Oliveira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
+74"
44
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Guida
Oliveira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.2
63.3
40.7
Performance Avg
58.6
35
Quality of Victory
51
78
Momentum Score
100
Guida
Oliveira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.1
36%
Strike Accuracy
53%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
6
3
Body
1
2
Leg
7
RangeRange
8Distance14
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Guida
Oliveira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.8
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Guida
Oliveira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
5
8
Sub Losses
4
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/60 fights
Chin rating based on
37/48 fights
Guida
Oliveira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
Guida
Oliveira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
84%
2
KO / TKO Wins
4
5
Submission Wins
17
11
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Guida
Oliveira
Striking2.1 / 3.0Volume5.9 / 2.7Grappling3.7 / 5.8Wrestling2.6 / 4.1Submission2.8 / 6.8Pressure4.2 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.8
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.1
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.8
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.7
Guida
Strike Zones
Oliveira
Guida
Attacking
4HEAD3BODY2LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD1BODY7LEGS14 absorbed
Oliveira
Attacking
6HEAD1BODY7LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD3BODY2LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Guida targets the head (44% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 44% of strikes there
🎯Oliveira targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Guida
RND
Oliveira
0/0R00/0

Guida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L2.8L5.2W5.7W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L4.5W2.8L4.5W1.5L5.4L4.5W5.0W2.9L4.5W1.9L6.2L4.6W5.7L5.3W2.4L4.5W6.3L6.1L2.3L2006-102010-032015-042021-082024-12
WinLossTrend

Oliveira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5W5.5W1.9L1.5L5.0W5.2W2.0L5.5L5.5W5.2W5.0W5.5W2.6L5.0W4.0L2.8L5.0W2.8L5.5W5.4W5.4W5.2W5.2W5.4W5.3W5.0W5.9W6.6W6.6W4.1L6.0W7.1L5.3W3.9L6.2W5.6W2010-082014-062018-062021-122026-03
WinLossTrend

Guida · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04

Oliveira · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Sub · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 6.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Ilia TopuriaRating 3.9
KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Michael ChandlerRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04

News & Media

Clay Guida · Charles Oliveira
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