UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland
Las Vegas, USA
5 Feb 2022
Light Heavyweight
VS
74%
Almeida
26%
Marques
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:57
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Almeida
Almeida is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 45 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Almeida has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Striking split: Almeida throws more volume but Marques connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Marques has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Almeida
Marques
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'6"
79"+
Reach
77"
34+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Almeida
Marques
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
70.9
25.5
61.0
Performance Avg
42.3
53
Quality of Victory
37
100
Momentum Score
57
Almeida
Marques
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.0
64%
Strike Accuracy
90%
5.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
30
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch0
30Ground0
Almeida
Marques
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Almeida
Marques
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
56
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/27 fights
Chin rating based on
4/15 fights
Almeida
Marques
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
57
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Almeida
Marques
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Almeida
Marques
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
8.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
2.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
AlmeidaMarques
Strike Zones
Almeida
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedMarques
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Almeida targets the head (100% of attacks) — Marques absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Almeida
RND
Marques
0/0R00/0
Almeida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Marques · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Almeida · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Rizvan KunievRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Serghei SpivacRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R1
Alexandr RomanovRating 5.8Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · KO · R2
Curtis BlaydesRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
Marques · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Jailton AlmeidaRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · 2022-02
L · KO · R3
Kennedy NzechukwuRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · 2021-06
W · Sub · R2
Mike RodriguezRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · 2021-02
W · Dec · R3
Khadis IbragimovRating 4.5Decision
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · 2020-09