UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
Montreal, Canada
17 Nov 2012
Featherweight
VS
26%
Siler
74%
Elkins
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
SS
Steven Siler
"Super"
29 – 16
5'11"70" reachOrthodox39 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 16
Darren
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
29 – 12
Well-Rounded42 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'10"
CFR 45

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Elkins

Elkins is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Elkins throws more volume but Siler connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Elkins has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Siler
Elkins
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
70"
Reach
+71"
39+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Siler
Elkins
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.5
44.7
44.9
Performance Avg
46.3
38
Quality of Victory
35
36
Momentum Score
66
Siler
Elkins
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.3
39%
Strike Accuracy
38%
3.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
14
3
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance6
3Clinch4
1Ground7
Siler
Elkins
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Siler
Elkins
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
0
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/45 fights
Chin rating based on
30/41 fights
Siler
Elkins
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
36
66
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Siler
Elkins
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
37%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
3
3
Decision Wins
12

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Siler
Elkins
Striking3.1 / 3.4Volume5.9 / 6.3Grappling3.0 / 2.8Wrestling2.1 / 1.9Submission2.0 / 1.6Pressure4.5 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.6
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
Siler
Strike Zones
Elkins
Siler
Attacking
5HEAD3BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD2BODY1LEGS17 absorbed
Elkins
Attacking
14HEAD2BODY1LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD3BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Siler targets the head (63% of attacks) — Elkins absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Elkins targets the head (82% of attacks) — Siler absorbs 82% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Siler
RND
Elkins
0/0R00/0

Siler · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W4.5W5.0W6.0L4.5W5.0W5.5L1.5L5.5L2011-122012-112013-112014-07
WinLossTrend

Elkins · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W2.9L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W1.5L4.5W6.0L4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W4.5W5.3W7.0L4.0L5.5L6.2L5.5W5.2W2.0L4.5W6.0L5.5W5.4W1.7L2010-032013-082017-072021-122025-04
WinLossTrend

Siler · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Noad LahatRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown · 2014-07
L · KO · R1
Rony JasonRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Henderson 2 · 2014-03
L · Dec · R3
Dennis BermudezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3 · 2013-11
W · KO · R1
Mike BrownRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen · 2013-08
W · Dec · R3
Kurt HolobaughRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · 2013-04

Elkins · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 1.7
KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
W · Sub · R3
TJ BrownRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan PearceRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
Tristan ConnellyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04

News & Media

Steven Siler · Darren Elkins
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