UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov
London, United Kingdom
17 Mar 2018
Welterweight
VS
79%
Edwards
21%
Sobotta
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 4:59
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Edwards
Edwards is a strong favourite at 79% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Sobotta throws more volume but Edwards connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Edwards's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sobotta has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Edwards
Sobotta
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'0"
74"
Reach
+75"
34+
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Edwards
Sobotta
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.4
15.1
51.1
Performance Avg
39.8
36
Quality of Victory
40
95
Momentum Score
50
Edwards
Sobotta
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
0.7
56%
Strike Accuracy
39%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
29
Head
2
1
Body
2
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
4Distance5
1Clinch1
25Ground0
Edwards
Sobotta
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.2
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Edwards
Sobotta
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
48
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/28 fights
Chin rating based on
10/24 fights
Edwards
Sobotta
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
50
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Edwards
Sobotta
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
1
10
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Edwards
Sobotta
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
7.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
EdwardsSobotta
Strike Zones
Edwards
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedSobotta
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Edwards targets the head (97% of attacks) — Sobotta absorbs 97% of strikes there
🎯Sobotta targets the head (33% of attacks) — Edwards absorbs 33% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Edwards
RND
Sobotta
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Edwards · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Sobotta · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Edwards · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Carlos PratesRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
L · Sub · R4
Sean BradyRating 4.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.8Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 5.6Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
Sobotta · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Alex OliveiraRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · KO · R3
Leon EdwardsRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · 2018-03
W · KO · R2
Ben SaundersRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05
W · Dec · R3
Nicolas DalbyRating 4.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Kyle NokeRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm · 2015-11