UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze
Las Vegas, USA
15 Jan 2022
Middleweight
VS
41%
Pickett
59%
Holmes
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Holmes
This is a genuine toss-up — Pickett at 41% vs Holmes at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Holmes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 29 points.
Holmes has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Pickett's chin rating of 26 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Holmes has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Pickett
Holmes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'4"
80"
Reach
80"
37
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pickett
Holmes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
24.1
35.0
23.9
Performance Avg
42.4
25
Quality of Victory
54
45
Momentum Score
29
Pickett
Holmes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.1
40%
Strike Accuracy
56%
0.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
8
7
Body
5
4
Leg
1
RangeRange
13Distance11
4Clinch3
0Ground0
Pickett
Holmes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
5.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
10.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pickett
Holmes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
26
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/24 fights
Chin rating based on
4/12 fights
Pickett
Holmes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
29
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Pickett
Holmes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pickett
Holmes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
0.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
8.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
PickettHolmes
Strike Zones
Pickett
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedHolmes
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pickett targets the body (41% of attacks) — Holmes absorbs 41% of strikes there
🎯Holmes targets the head (57% of attacks) — Pickett absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pickett
RND
Holmes
0/0R00/0
Pickett · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Holmes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Pickett · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Eryk AndersRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Josh FremdRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08
L · Sub · R1
Bo NickalRating 3.2Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
L · KO · R2
Denis TiuliulinRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Sub · R1
Kyle DaukausRating 2.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill · 2022-02
Holmes · Last 4
L · KO · R2
Claudio RibeiroRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
L · Sub · R2
JunYong ParkRating 3.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
W · Sub · R1
Alen AmedovskiRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · 2022-05
L · Dec · R3
Jamie PickettRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01