UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2
Los Angeles, USA
4 Aug 2018
Featherweight
VS
67%
Sayles
33%
Moraes
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Sayles
Sayles holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Moraes has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Sayles has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
Striking split: Sayles throws more volume but Moraes connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Moraes has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Sayles
Moraes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
68"
Reach
+72"
32+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sayles
Moraes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
23.2
11.4
37.0
Performance Avg
31.0
45
Quality of Victory
25
22
Momentum Score
40
Sayles
Moraes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.2
41%
Strike Accuracy
41%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
11
10
Body
10
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
33Distance21
3Clinch0
0Ground0
Sayles
Moraes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Sayles
Moraes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
64
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/12 fights
Chin rating based on
5/15 fights
Sayles
Moraes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
22
40
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Sayles
Moraes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Sayles
Moraes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.2
0.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.8
SaylesMoraes
Strike Zones
Sayles
Attacking
36 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedMoraes
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
36 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Sayles targets the head (58% of attacks) — Moraes absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Moraes targets the head (52% of attacks) — Sayles absorbs 52% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Sayles
RND
Moraes
0/0R00/0
Sayles · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Moraes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Sayles · Last 4
L · Sub · R2
Jordan LeavittRating 4.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12
L · Sub · R1
Bryce MitchellRating 2.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
W · Sub · R3
Kyle NelsonRating 5.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · 2019-05
L · Dec · R3
Sheymon MoraesRating 5.5Decision
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 · 2018-08
Moraes · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Andre FiliRating 2.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Sodiq YusuffRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Julio ArceRating 5.2Decision
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · 2018-11
W · Dec · R3
Matt SaylesRating 4.5Decision
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 · 2018-08
L · Sub · R3
Zabit MagomedsharipovRating 4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Gastelum · 2017-11