UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley
Atlanta, USA
14 Jun 2025
Welterweight
VS
57%
Chiesa
43%
McGee
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Chiesa
This is a genuine toss-up — Chiesa at 57% vs McGee at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: McGee throws more volume but Chiesa connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Chiesa's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
McGee has a chin rating of 14 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Chiesa
McGee
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
75"
Reach
75"
38+
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Chiesa
McGee
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.7
38.7
53.3
Performance Avg
40.1
43
Quality of Victory
36
50
Momentum Score
50
Chiesa
McGee
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.6
41%
Strike Accuracy
39%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
3
21
Body
6
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
16Distance11
17Clinch1
0Ground0
Chiesa
McGee
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.9
4.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Chiesa
McGee
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
14
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
5
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/27 fights
Chin rating based on
24/37 fights
Chiesa
McGee
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
50
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Chiesa
McGee
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
27%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
9
Submission Wins
3
6
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Chiesa
McGee
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.9
4.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
6.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.7
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.3
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
ChiesaMcGee
Strike Zones
Chiesa
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedMcGee
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Chiesa targets the body (64% of attacks) — McGee absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯McGee targets the body (50% of attacks) — Chiesa absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Chiesa
RND
McGee
0/0R00/0
Chiesa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
McGee · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Chiesa · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Niko PriceRating 5.7Submission
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W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · Sub · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonRating 5.5Submission
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L · Sub · R1
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UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
McGee · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Michael ChiesaRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · Sub · R1
Tim MeansRating 5.1Submission
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 5.5Decision
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L · KO · R1
Matt BrownRating 1.9KO/TKO
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L · KO · R1
Jeremiah WellsRating 2.9KO/TKO
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