UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
Los Angeles, USA
4 Jun 2016
Lightweight
VS
56%
Poirier
44%
Green
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:53
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Poirier
This is a genuine toss-up — Poirier at 56% vs Green at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Poirier has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Green has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Poirier's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Green has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Poirier
Green
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
72"+
Reach
71"
37+
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Poirier
Green
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
61.4
49.0
58.2
Performance Avg
45.9
50
Quality of Victory
38
100
Momentum Score
85
Poirier
Green
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
3.2
54%
Strike Accuracy
55%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
10 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
31
Head
13
1
Body
2
4
Leg
1
RangeRange
25Distance15
6Clinch1
5Ground0
Poirier
Green
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Poirier
Green
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
5
4
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/40 fights
Chin rating based on
30/52 fights
Poirier
Green
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
85
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
Poirier
Green
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
44%
10
KO / TKO Wins
4
4
Submission Wins
3
8
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Poirier
Green
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.9
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
PoirierGreen
Strike Zones
Poirier
Attacking
36 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedGreen
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
36 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Poirier targets the head (86% of attacks) — Green absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Green targets the head (81% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 81% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Poirier
RND
Green
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Poirier · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Green · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Poirier · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 6.6Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Sub · R5
Islam MakhachevRating 6Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 6.9KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Sub · R3
Michael ChandlerRating 6.3Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
Green · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Jeremy StephensRating 5.5Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · KO · R2
Daniel ZellhuberRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Lance Gibson Jr.Rating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
L · KO · R1
Mauricio RuffyRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · Sub · R1
Paddy PimblettRating 3.2Submission
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07