UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
Las Vegas, USA
5 Mar 2016
Welterweight
VS
44%
Thatch
56%
Bahadurzada
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:11
BT
Brandon Thatch
"Rukus"
11 – 5
6'2"74" reachSwitch40 yrs4-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 18
SB
Siyar Bahadurzada
"The Great"
24 – 8
Knockout Artist2-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'11"
CFR 22

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Bahadurzada

This is a genuine toss-up — Thatch at 44% vs Bahadurzada at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Thatch throws more volume but Bahadurzada connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Thatch's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Thatch
Bahadurzada
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'11"
74"+
Reach
73"
40+
Age
42
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Thatch
Bahadurzada
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.8
22.4
49.3
Performance Avg
52.2
60
Quality of Victory
54
33
Momentum Score
78
Thatch
Bahadurzada
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.2
45%
Strike Accuracy
45%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
20
0
Body
3
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance5
0Clinch2
1Ground17
Thatch
Bahadurzada
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
2.0
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Thatch
Bahadurzada
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
92
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
4
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/16 fights
Chin rating based on
8/32 fights
Thatch
Bahadurzada
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
78
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R4
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
Thatch
Bahadurzada
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Thatch
Bahadurzada
Striking10.0 / 8.5Volume0.7 / 1.0Grappling0.0 / 2.0Wrestling0.0 / 1.4Submission0.0 / 2.5Pressure8.0 / 8.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.5
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.5
0.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
Thatch
Strike Zones
Bahadurzada
Thatch
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
20HEAD3BODY1LEGS24 absorbed
Bahadurzada
Attacking
20HEAD3BODY1LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Thatch targets the head (50% of attacks) — Bahadurzada absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Bahadurzada targets the head (83% of attacks) — Thatch absorbs 83% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Thatch
RND
Bahadurzada
0/0R00/0

Thatch · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.7
0105.0W5.0W3.4L2.6L4.0L2.2L2013-082013-112015-022015-072016-032016-12
WinLossTrend

Bahadurzada · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.0W5.5L5.5L5.5W5.2W5.2W5.5L6.0L2012-042013-122017-092018-122019-09
WinLossTrend

Thatch · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Niko PriceRating 2.2
Submission
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · 2016-12
L · Sub · R3
Siyar BahadurzadaRating 4
Submission
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz · 2016-03
L · Sub · R1
Gunnar NelsonRating 2.6
Submission
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
L · Sub · R4
Benson HendersonRating 3.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch · 2015-02
W · KO · R1
Paulo ThiagoRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · 2013-11

Bahadurzada · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Ismail NaurdievRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Curtis MillenderRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
W · KO · R2
Luan ChagasRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
W · KO · R2
Rob WilkinsonRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve · 2017-09
W · Sub · R3
Brandon ThatchRating 5.5
Submission
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz · 2016-03

News & Media

Brandon Thatch · Siyar Bahadurzada
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