METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale
Las Vegas, USA
15 Dec 2012
Featherweight
VS
74%
Poirier
26%
Brookins
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:15
★ Official Result
Dustin PoirierwinsSubmissionR1 · 4:15
def. Jonathan Brookins · The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Poirier
→
Actual result
Poirier wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Poirier is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 40 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Brookins has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 30 points.
Poirier has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Poirier's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
PoirierBrookins
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Poirier
Brookins
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
72"
Reach
+74"
37+
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Poirier
Brookins
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
61.4
21.5
58.2
Performance Avg
64.0
50
Quality of Victory
80
100
Momentum Score
45
Poirier
Brookins
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.7
1.6
54%
Strike Accuracy
44%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
10 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
28
Head
20
4
Body
6
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
13Distance12
22Clinch14
0Ground0
Poirier
Brookins
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.2
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
1.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
1.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Poirier
Brookins
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
74
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
4
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/40 fights
Chin rating based on
5/26 fights
Poirier
Brookins
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Poirier
Brookins
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
50%
10
KO / TKO Wins
1
4
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Poirier
Brookins
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
PoirierBrookins
Strike Zones
Poirier
Attacking
35 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedBrookins
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
35 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Poirier targets the head (80% of attacks) — Brookins absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Brookins targets the head (77% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 77% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Poirier
RND
Brookins
0/0R00/0
Poirier · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Brookins · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Poirier · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 6.6Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Sub · R5
Islam MakhachevRating 6Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 6.9KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Sub · R3
Michael ChandlerRating 6.3Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
Brookins · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Dustin PoirierRating 2.8Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12
L · Sub · R2
Charles OliveiraRating 4.2Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale · 2012-06
W · KO · R1
Vagner RochaRating 5KO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger · 2012-02
L · Dec · R3
Erik KochRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09
W · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonRating 4.6Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP vs Team Koscheck Finale · 2010-12