The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale
Las Vegas, USA
15 Dec 2012
Featherweight
VS
74%
Poirier
26%
Brookins
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:15
Dustin
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
30 – 10
5'9"72" reachSouthpaw37 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 61
JB
Jonathan Brookins
16 – 10
Well-Rounded2-fight slide40 yrsSouthpaw74" reach6'0"
CFR 22

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Poirier

Poirier is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 40 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Brookins has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 30 points.

Poirier has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Poirier's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Poirier
Brookins
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
72"
Reach
+74"
37+
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Poirier
Brookins
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
61.4
21.5
58.2
Performance Avg
64.0
50
Quality of Victory
80
100
Momentum Score
45
Poirier
Brookins
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.6
54%
Strike Accuracy
44%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
10 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
28
Head
20
4
Body
6
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
13Distance12
22Clinch14
0Ground0
Poirier
Brookins
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.2
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
1.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
1.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Poirier
Brookins
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
74
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
4
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/40 fights
Chin rating based on
5/26 fights
Poirier
Brookins
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Poirier
Brookins
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
50%
10
KO / TKO Wins
1
4
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Poirier
Brookins
Striking6.0 / 5.8Volume4.0 / 4.8Grappling2.2 / 1.2Wrestling1.6 / 0.8Submission1.8 / 0.0Pressure6.6 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Poirier
Strike Zones
Brookins
Poirier
Attacking
28HEAD4BODY3LEGS35 landed
Absorbing
20HEAD6BODY0LEGS26 absorbed
Brookins
Attacking
20HEAD6BODY0LEGS26 landed
Absorbing
28HEAD4BODY3LEGS35 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Poirier targets the head (80% of attacks) — Brookins absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Brookins targets the head (77% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 77% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Poirier
RND
Brookins
0/0R00/0

Poirier · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W5.2W6.1W3.9L5.0W6.0L4.5W5.0W5.2W3.5L6.0W5.0W4.5W5.7W1.6L4.9W5.2W6.9W5.1W5.6W2.8L5.4W7.1W6.0W4.2L6.3W3.7L6.9W6.0L6.6L2011-012013-122017-022021-072025-07
WinLossTrend

Brookins · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0104.6W5.5L5.0W4.2L2.8L2010-122011-092012-022012-062012-12
WinLossTrend

Poirier · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Sub · R5
Islam MakhachevRating 6
Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 6.9
KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Sub · R3
Michael ChandlerRating 6.3
Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11

Brookins · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Dustin PoirierRating 2.8
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12
L · Sub · R2
Charles OliveiraRating 4.2
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale · 2012-06
W · KO · R1
Vagner RochaRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger · 2012-02
L · Dec · R3
Erik KochRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09
W · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonRating 4.6
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP vs Team Koscheck Finale · 2010-12

News & Media

Dustin Poirier · Jonathan Brookins
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