UFC Fight Night: Stevenson vs Guillard
Las Vegas, USA
5 Apr 2007
Lightweight
VS
94%
Tavares
6%
Kotani
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Tavares
Tavares is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Tavares has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 42 points.
Tavares has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Tavares's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Kotani has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Tavares
Kotani
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
70"+
Reach
66"
41+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Tavares
Kotani
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.0
1.1
48.8
Performance Avg
0.0
42
Quality of Victory
0
81
Momentum Score
0
Tavares
Kotani
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.6
44%
Strike Accuracy
37%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
0
7
Body
0
0
Leg
6
RangeRange
3Distance3
0Clinch3
12Ground0
Tavares
Kotani
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
5.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
3.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Tavares
Kotani
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
40
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
5
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/28 fights
Chin rating based on
5/48 fights
Tavares
Kotani
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
0
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Tavares
Kotani
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Tavares
Kotani
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
5.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
TavaresKotani
Strike Zones
Tavares
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedKotani
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Tavares targets the head (53% of attacks) — Kotani absorbs 53% of strikes there
🎯Kotani targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Tavares absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Tavares
RND
Kotani
0/0R00/0
Tavares · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Kotani · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Tavares · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Dooho ChoiRating 3.3KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale · 2016-07
W · Sub · R1
Clay GuidaRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
L · KO · R3
Brian OrtegaRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
W · Sub · R1
Robert PeraltaRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux · 2014-08
W · Sub · R1
Justin SalasRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · 2013-11
Kotani · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kajan JohnsonRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
L · Sub · R2
Yan CabralRating 2.8Submission
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2 · 2014-10
L · KO · R2
Norman ParkeRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Brandao · 2014-07
L · KO · R2
Dennis SiverRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 75: Champion vs Champion · 2007-09
L · Dec · R3
Thiago TavaresRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Stevenson vs Guillard · 2007-04