UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
Chicago, USA
28 Jan 2012
Lightweight
VS
74%
Johnson
26%
Roller
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Michael
Michael Johnson
"The Menace"
25 – 20
5'10"73" reachSouthpaw39 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 37
SR
Shane Roller
11 – 7
Well-Rounded46 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'10"
CFR 13

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Johnson

Johnson is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Johnson throws more volume but Roller connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Johnson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Roller has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Johnson
Roller
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
73"+
Reach
72"
39+
Age
46
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Johnson
Roller
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.8
13.2
42.5
Performance Avg
37.3
38
Quality of Victory
40
35
Momentum Score
28
Johnson
Roller
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
0.8
39%
Strike Accuracy
41%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
6 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
29
1
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance4
0Clinch0
2Ground25
Johnson
Roller
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Johnson
Roller
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
52
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/45 fights
Chin rating based on
6/18 fights
Johnson
Roller
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
35
28
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
Johnson
Roller
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
50%
6
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Johnson
Roller
Striking4.8 / 5.7Volume6.0 / 4.7Grappling1.5 / 1.2Wrestling1.1 / 0.8Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure4.1 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
Johnson
Strike Zones
Roller
Johnson
Attacking
7HEAD1BODY2LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
29HEAD0BODY0LEGS29 absorbed
Roller
Attacking
29HEAD0BODY0LEGS29 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD1BODY2LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the head (70% of attacks) — Roller absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Roller targets the head (100% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Johnson
RND
Roller
0/0R00/0

Johnson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.5L5.0W1.5L4.5W5.0W5.2W5.5L4.0L4.5W5.2W4.5W5.0W6.5L5.5L6.3W4.0L3.7L3.2L5.2W4.5W4.1L5.5L3.0L6.0L5.2W5.7L4.6W3.8L5.3W6.0W4.9W4.0L2010-122013-082017-072022-052026-03
WinLossTrend

Roller · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.7
0105.2W1.5L4.0L5.6L4.5W1.5L2011-032011-072011-102012-012012-072012-10
WinLossTrend

Johnson · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Drew DoberRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Daniel ZellhuberRating 4.9
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · KO · R2
Ottman AzaitarRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Darrius FlowersRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05

Roller · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Jacob VolkmannRating 1.5
Submission
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot · 2012-10
W · Dec · R3
John AlessioRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 · 2012-07
L · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonRating 5.6
Decision
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis · 2012-01
L · Sub · R3
TJ GrantRating 4
Submission
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson · 2011-10
L · KO · R1
Melvin GuillardRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber · 2011-07

News & Media

Michael Johnson · Shane Roller
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