METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
Chicago, USA
28 Jan 2012
Lightweight
VS
74%
Johnson
26%
Roller
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Michael JohnsonwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Shane Roller · UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Johnson
→
Actual result
Johnson wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Johnson is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Johnson throws more volume but Roller connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Johnson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Roller has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
JohnsonRoller
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Johnson
Roller
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
73"+
Reach
72"
40+
Age
47
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Johnson
Roller
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.8
13.2
42.5
Performance Avg
37.3
38
Quality of Victory
40
35
Momentum Score
28
Johnson
Roller
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
0.8
39%
Strike Accuracy
41%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
6 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
29
1
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance4
0Clinch0
2Ground25
Johnson
Roller
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Johnson
Roller
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
52
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/45 fights
Chin rating based on
6/18 fights
Johnson
Roller
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
35
28
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
Johnson
Roller
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
50%
6
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Johnson
Roller
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
JohnsonRoller
Strike Zones
Johnson
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
29 absorbedRoller
Attacking
29 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the head (70% of attacks) — Roller absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Roller targets the head (100% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Johnson
RND
Roller
0/0R00/0
Johnson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Roller · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.7WinLossTrend
Johnson · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Drew DoberRating 4KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Daniel ZellhuberRating 4.9Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · KO · R2
Ottman AzaitarRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Darrius FlowersRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
Roller · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Jacob VolkmannRating 1.5Submission
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot · 2012-10
W · Dec · R3
John AlessioRating 4.5Decision
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 · 2012-07
L · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonRating 5.6Decision
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis · 2012-01
L · Sub · R3
TJ GrantRating 4Submission
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson · 2011-10
L · KO · R1
Melvin GuillardRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber · 2011-07