UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
Salt Lake City, USA
5 Oct 2024
Lightweight
VS
37%
Hubbard
63%
Hernandez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Hernandez
Hernandez holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Hubbard has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Hernandez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Striking split: Hernandez throws more volume but Hubbard connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Hubbard's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Hernandez has a chin rating of 14 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Hubbard
Hernandez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
71"
Reach
+72"
34
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Hubbard
Hernandez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.7
52.9
28.7
Performance Avg
47.4
26
Quality of Victory
42
41
Momentum Score
90
Hubbard
Hernandez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.8
46%
Strike Accuracy
43%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
0 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
18
11
Body
10
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
31Distance29
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Hubbard
Hernandez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
1.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hubbard
Hernandez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
14
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/27 fights
Chin rating based on
18/27 fights
Hubbard
Hernandez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
41
90
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Hubbard
Hernandez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hubbard
Hernandez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
6.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
HubbardHernandez
Strike Zones
Hubbard
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedHernandez
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hubbard targets the head (58% of attacks) — Hernandez absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Hernandez targets the head (60% of attacks) — Hubbard absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hubbard
RND
Hernandez
0/0R00/0
Hubbard · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Hernandez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Hubbard · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
RongzhuRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
MarQuel MederosRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 6.4Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Michal FiglakRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · Sub · R2
Kurt HolobaughRating 2.8Submission
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
Hernandez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
Chase HooperRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Kurt HolobaughRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Austin HubbardRating 4.5Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10