METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
Salt Lake City, USA
5 Oct 2024
Lightweight
VS
37%
Hubbard
63%
Hernandez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Alexander HernandezwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Austin Hubbard · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Hernandez
→
Actual result
Hernandez wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Hernandez holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Hubbard has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Hernandez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Risk flags
Hubbard's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Hernandez has a chin rating of 14 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
HubbardHernandez
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Hubbard
Hernandez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
71"
Reach
+72"
34
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Hubbard
Hernandez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.7
52.9
28.7
Performance Avg
47.4
26
Quality of Victory
42
41
Momentum Score
90
Hubbard
Hernandez
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.7
/ 10
6.1
/ 10
1.0
Style: Pressure
5.2
6.7
Style: Volume
5.1
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
5 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
18
11
Body
10
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
31Distance29
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Hubbard
Hernandez
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.8
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Hubbard
Hernandez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
14
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/27 fights
Chin rating based on
19/27 fights
Hubbard
Hernandez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
41
90
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Hubbard
Hernandez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hubbard
Hernandez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
6.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
HubbardHernandez
Strike Zones
Hubbard
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedHernandez
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hubbard targets the head (58% of attacks) — Hernandez absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Hernandez targets the head (60% of attacks) — Hubbard absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hubbard
RND
Hernandez
0/0R00/0
Hubbard · Last 5
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W · Dec · R3
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Upcoming
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