METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad
Las Vegas, USA
13 Mar 2021
Women's Flyweight
VS
37%
Casey
63%
Aldrich
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
JJ AldrichwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Cortney Casey · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Aldrich
→
Actual result
Aldrich wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Aldrich holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Casey has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Casey has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Risk flags
Aldrich has a chin rating of 58 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CaseyAldrich
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Casey
Aldrich
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'5"
67"
Reach
67"
39
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Casey
Aldrich
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
27.5
47.4
40.3
Performance Avg
42.5
41
Quality of Victory
28
73
Momentum Score
80
Casey
Aldrich
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.5
/ 10
2.2
/ 10
4.7
Style: Pressure
2.6
4.8
Style: Volume
8.6
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
24
2
Body
1
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
25Distance24
2Clinch1
0Ground0
Casey
Aldrich
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.9
/ 10
2.2
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.5
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Casey
Aldrich
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
58
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
13 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/20 fights
Chin rating based on
18/22 fights
Casey
Aldrich
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
73
80
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Casey
Aldrich
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
9%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
10
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Casey
Aldrich
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.2
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.6
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.6
CaseyAldrich
Strike Zones
Casey
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedAldrich
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Casey targets the head (85% of attacks) — Aldrich absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Aldrich targets the head (96% of attacks) — Casey absorbs 96% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Casey
RND
Aldrich
0/0R00/0
Casey · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Antonina ShevchenkoDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · 2022-07
W · Dec · R3
Liana JojuaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
L · Dec · R3
JJ AldrichDecision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · 2021-03
L · Sub · R3
Gillian RobertsonSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov · 2020-06
W · Sub · R1
Mara Romero BorellaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05
Aldrich · Last 5
Upcoming
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W · Dec · R3
Jamey-Lyn HorthDecision
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W · Dec · R3
Andrea LeeDecision
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Veronica HardyDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Montana De La RosaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · 2023-10