UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad
Las Vegas, USA
13 Mar 2021
Women's Flyweight
VS
37%
Casey
63%
Aldrich
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Aldrich
Aldrich holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Casey has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Casey has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Striking split: Casey throws more volume but Aldrich connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Aldrich has a chin rating of 58 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Casey
Aldrich
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'5"
67"
Reach
67"
39
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Casey
Aldrich
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
27.5
47.4
40.3
Performance Avg
42.5
41
Quality of Victory
28
73
Momentum Score
80
Casey
Aldrich
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.7
39%
Strike Accuracy
48%
2.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
24
2
Body
1
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
25Distance24
2Clinch1
0Ground0
Casey
Aldrich
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.2
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Casey
Aldrich
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
58
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
12 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/20 fights
Chin rating based on
17/22 fights
Casey
Aldrich
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
73
80
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Casey
Aldrich
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
9%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
10
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Casey
Aldrich
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.2
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.6
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.6
CaseyAldrich
Strike Zones
Casey
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedAldrich
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Casey targets the head (85% of attacks) — Aldrich absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Aldrich targets the head (96% of attacks) — Casey absorbs 96% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Casey
RND
Aldrich
0/0R00/0
Casey · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Aldrich · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Casey · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Antonina ShevchenkoRating 5.5Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Liana JojuaRating 4.5Decision
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L · Dec · R3
JJ AldrichRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · 2021-03
L · Sub · R3
Gillian RobertsonRating 5.2Submission
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W · Sub · R1
Mara Romero BorellaRating 5Submission
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Aldrich · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Jamey-Lyn HorthRating 5.2Decision
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Veronica HardyRating 5.8Decision
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W · Dec · R3
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