UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum
Monterrey, Mexico
21 Nov 2015
Flyweight
VS
19%
Formiga
81%
Cejudo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JF
Jussier Formiga
23 – 8
5'5"67" reachOrthodox41 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 15
Henry
Henry Cejudo
"Triple C"
16 – 6
Well-Rounded4-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox64" reach5'4"
CFR 65

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Cejudo

Cejudo is a strong favourite at 81% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 50 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Cejudo has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.

Cejudo has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Formiga's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Cejudo has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Formiga
Cejudo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"+
Height
5'4"
67"+
Reach
64"
41
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Formiga
Cejudo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.9
64.7
42.7
Performance Avg
57.5
34
Quality of Victory
54
64
Momentum Score
97
Formiga
Cejudo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.4
40%
Strike Accuracy
54%
1.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
3
3
Body
11
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
4Clinch13
0Ground0
Formiga
Cejudo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.3
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Formiga
Cejudo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
68
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
11 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/31 fights
Chin rating based on
16/22 fights
Formiga
Cejudo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
64
97
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
Formiga
Cejudo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
40%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
3
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Formiga
Cejudo
Striking1.1 / 5.3Volume6.5 / 6.0Grappling4.3 / 1.4Wrestling3.0 / 1.0Submission3.3 / 0.0Pressure4.0 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.3
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.0
Formiga
Strike Zones
Cejudo
Formiga
Attacking
1HEAD3BODY1LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD11BODY0LEGS14 absorbed
Cejudo
Attacking
3HEAD11BODY0LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD3BODY1LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Formiga targets the body (60% of attacks) — Cejudo absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Cejudo targets the body (79% of attacks) — Formiga absorbs 79% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Formiga
RND
Cejudo
0/0R00/0

Formiga · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0102.8L4.5W1.5L5.0W4.5W4.5W7.0L4.5W5.5L5.0W5.5W4.5W5.6W2.8L6.4L2.8L2012-102014-082017-032019-032020-06
WinLossTrend

Cejudo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.1W5.2W5.1W6.5L6.8L6.1L7.0L2014-122016-042018-082023-052025-12
WinLossTrend

Formiga · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Alex PerezRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06
L · Dec · R3
Brandon MorenoRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
L · KO · R2
Joseph BenavidezRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
W · Dec · R3
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Sergio PettisRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10

Cejudo · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Payton TalbottRating 7
Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Song YadongRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · Dec · R5
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
W · KO · R2
Dominick CruzRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05

News & Media

Jussier Formiga · Henry Cejudo
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