UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
24 Oct 2020
Women's Flyweight
VS
95%
Murphy
5%
Shakirova
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:31
Lauren
Lauren Murphy
"Lucky"
16 – 7
5'5"67" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 52
LS
Liliya Shakirova
8 – 2
Well-Rounded34 yrsOrthodox65" reach5'4"
CFR 3

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Murphy

Murphy is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 49 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Murphy has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 34 points.

Murphy has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Murphy's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Murphy
Shakirova
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"+
Height
5'4"
67"+
Reach
65"
42
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Murphy
Shakirova
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.7
2.5
41.9
Performance Avg
0.0
34
Quality of Victory
0
87
Momentum Score
0
Murphy
Shakirova
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.1
43%
Strike Accuracy
29%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
3
4
Body
1
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
5Distance8
3Clinch0
2Ground0
Murphy
Shakirova
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Murphy
Shakirova
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
88
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R4.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/23 fights
Chin rating based on
1/10 fights
Murphy
Shakirova
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
87
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Murphy
Shakirova
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Murphy
Shakirova
Striking3.6 / 0.0Volume6.1 / 0.0Grappling2.5 / 0.0Wrestling1.8 / 0.0Submission1.3 / 0.0Pressure4.2 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Murphy
Strike Zones
Shakirova
Murphy
Attacking
6HEAD4BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY4LEGS8 absorbed
Shakirova
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY4LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD4BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Murphy targets the head (60% of attacks) — Shakirova absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Shakirova targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Murphy absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Murphy
RND
Shakirova
0/0R00/0

Murphy · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.5L5.5L5.5W5.8L4.5W5.5L5.5W4.9W4.5W5.2W4.7W4.7L5.4W6.3L6.3L2014-082017-122020-062022-072025-07
WinLossTrend

Murphy · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Eduarda MouraRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · Dec · R3
Jessica AndradeRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
W · Dec · R3
Miesha TateRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · KO · R4
Valentina ShevchenkoRating 4.7
KO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
W · Dec · R3
Joanne WoodRating 4.7
Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06

Shakirova · Last 1

L · Sub · R2
Lauren MurphyRating 3.6
Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10

News & Media

Lauren Murphy · Liliya Shakirova
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