METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
24 Oct 2020
Women's Flyweight
VS
95%
Murphy
5%
Shakirova
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:31
★ Official Result
Lauren MurphywinsSubmissionR2 · 3:31
def. Liliya Shakirova · UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Murphy
→
Actual result
Murphy wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Murphy is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 49 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Murphy has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 34 points.
Risk flags
Murphy's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MurphyShakirova
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Murphy
Shakirova
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"+
Height
5'4"
67"+
Reach
65"
43
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Murphy
Shakirova
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.7
2.5
41.9
Performance Avg
0.0
34
Quality of Victory
0
87
Momentum Score
0
Murphy
Shakirova
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
4.2
Style: Pressure
0.0
6.1
Style: Volume
0.0
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
3
4
Body
1
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
5Distance8
3Clinch0
2Ground0
Murphy
Shakirova
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.5
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
1.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Murphy
Shakirova
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
88
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R4.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/23 fights
Chin rating based on
1/10 fights
Murphy
Shakirova
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
87
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Murphy
Shakirova
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Murphy
Shakirova
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
MurphyShakirova
Strike Zones
Murphy
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedShakirova
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Murphy targets the head (60% of attacks) — Shakirova absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Shakirova targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Murphy absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Murphy
RND
Shakirova
0/0R00/0
Murphy · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Eduarda MouraDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · Dec · R3
Jessica AndradeDecision
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
W · Dec · R3
Miesha TateDecision
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · KO · R4
Valentina ShevchenkoKO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
W · Dec · R3
Joanne WoodDecision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
Shakirova · Last 1
L · Sub · R2
Lauren MurphySubmission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10