METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Dos Anjos
Tulsa, USA
23 Aug 2014
Featherweight
VS
78%
Skelly
22%
Niinimaki
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:35
★ Official Result
Chas SkellywinsSubmissionR1 · 2:35
def. Tom Niinimaki · UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Dos Anjos
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Skelly
→
Actual result
Skelly wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Skelly is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Skelly has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.
Niinimaki has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Niinimaki has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SkellyNiinimaki
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Skelly
Niinimaki
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
72"+
Reach
69"
41+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Skelly
Niinimaki
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
34.0
9.8
56.6
Performance Avg
25.0
46
Quality of Victory
25
75
Momentum Score
33
Skelly
Niinimaki
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.6
0.9
36%
Strike Accuracy
53%
4.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Skelly
Niinimaki
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
3.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Skelly
Niinimaki
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
64
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/22 fights
Chin rating based on
4/30 fights
Skelly
Niinimaki
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
33
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Skelly
Niinimaki
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Skelly
Niinimaki
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
SkellyNiinimaki
Strike Zones
Skelly
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedNiinimaki
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Skelly targets the head (100% of attacks) — Niinimaki absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Niinimaki targets the head (100% of attacks) — Skelly absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Skelly
RND
Niinimaki
0/0R00/0
Skelly · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Niinimaki · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.9WinLossTrend
Skelly · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Mark StrieglRating 5.2KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Jordan GriffinRating 4.5Decision
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Upcoming
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L · KO · R3
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W · Sub · R2
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Niinimaki · Last 4
L · Sub · R2
Renato MoicanoRating 3.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway · 2014-12
L · Sub · R1
Chas SkellyRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Dos Anjos · 2014-08
L · Sub · R1
Niklas BackstromRating 1.5Submission
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W · Dec · R3
Rani YahyaRating 4.9Decision
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