UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Dos Anjos
Tulsa, USA
23 Aug 2014
Featherweight
VS
78%
Skelly
22%
Niinimaki
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:35
CS
Chas Skelly
"The Scrapper"
19 – 3
5'11"72" reachOrthodox41 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 34
TN
Tom Niinimaki
"Stoneface"
22 – 8
Well-Rounded3-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'9"
CFR 10

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Skelly

Skelly is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Skelly has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.

Niinimaki has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Niinimaki has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Skelly
Niinimaki
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
72"+
Reach
69"
41+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Skelly
Niinimaki
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
34.0
9.8
56.6
Performance Avg
25.0
46
Quality of Victory
25
75
Momentum Score
33
Skelly
Niinimaki
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
0.9
36%
Strike Accuracy
53%
4.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Skelly
Niinimaki
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
3.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Skelly
Niinimaki
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
64
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/22 fights
Chin rating based on
4/30 fights
Skelly
Niinimaki
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
33
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Skelly
Niinimaki
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Skelly
Niinimaki
Striking4.0 / 0.5Volume3.5 / 8.5Grappling4.6 / 2.4Wrestling3.2 / 1.7Submission5.0 / 0.0Pressure7.4 / 0.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
Skelly
Strike Zones
Niinimaki
Skelly
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Niinimaki
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Skelly targets the head (100% of attacks) — Niinimaki absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Niinimaki targets the head (100% of attacks) — Skelly absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Skelly
RND
Niinimaki
0/0R00/0

Skelly · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.5L5.0W4.5W5.2W5.2W6.0L5.0W5.2W4.0L4.5W5.2W2014-042015-022016-092019-092022-02
WinLossTrend

Niinimaki · QOF Timeline

Avg: 2.9
0104.9W1.5L1.5L3.5L2013-112014-052014-082014-12
WinLossTrend

Skelly · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Mark StrieglRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill · 2022-02
W · Dec · R3
Jordan GriffinRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09
Upcoming
Bobby Moffett
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez · 2018-11
L · KO · R3
Jason KnightRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · 2017-05
W · Sub · R2
Chris GruetzemacherRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. The Korean Zombie · 2017-02

Niinimaki · Last 4

L · Sub · R2
Renato MoicanoRating 3.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway · 2014-12
L · Sub · R1
Chas SkellyRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Dos Anjos · 2014-08
L · Sub · R1
Niklas BackstromRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · 2014-05
W · Dec · R3
Rani YahyaRating 4.9
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale · 2013-11

News & Media

Chas Skelly · Tom Niinimaki
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