UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik
Washington, USA
7 Dec 2019
Heavyweight
VS
24%
Overeem
76%
Rozenstruik
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 5 · 4:56
AO
Alistair Overeem
"The Demolition Man"
47 – 19
6'4"80" reachOrthodox46 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 18
Jairzinho
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
"Bigi Boy"
15 – 6
Knockout Artist38 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'2"
CFR 57

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Rozenstruik

Rozenstruik is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Overeem has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Overeem's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Rozenstruik has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Overeem
Rozenstruik
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'2"
80"+
Reach
78"
46
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Overeem
Rozenstruik
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.1
57.0
55.0
Performance Avg
56.7
52
Quality of Victory
54
56
Momentum Score
56
Overeem
Rozenstruik
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.4
73%
Strike Accuracy
53%
8.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
9 KOs
KO Finishes
8 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
17
0
Body
1
5
Leg
3
RangeRange
11Distance19
0Clinch2
0Ground0
Overeem
Rozenstruik
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.3
0.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Overeem
Rozenstruik
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
38
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
8
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.1 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/66 fights
Chin rating based on
15/21 fights
Overeem
Rozenstruik
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
56
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R4
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Overeem
Rozenstruik
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
89%
9
KO / TKO Wins
8
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Overeem
Rozenstruik
Striking8.7 / 10.0Volume3.2 / 2.1Grappling0.6 / 0.3Wrestling0.4 / 0.2Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure7.0 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.3
0.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
3.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.1
Overeem
Strike Zones
Rozenstruik
Overeem
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY5LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD1BODY3LEGS21 absorbed
Rozenstruik
Attacking
17HEAD1BODY3LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY5LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Overeem targets the head (55% of attacks) — Rozenstruik absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Rozenstruik targets the head (81% of attacks) — Overeem absorbs 81% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Overeem
RND
Rozenstruik
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Overeem · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.0W4.0L1.5L4.5W1.5L5.0W4.5W5.2W5.8W2.6L5.5W4.5W1.9L4.9L6.2W5.0W5.1L5.1W5.7W3.4L2011-122014-122017-032019-042021-02
WinLossTrend

Rozenstruik · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.2W5.0W5.7W5.5W1.9L5.2W7.2L5.2W6.4L2.8L5.3W3.3L6.0W4.9W6.7L2019-022020-052021-092024-032025-02
WinLossTrend

Overeem · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Alexander VolkovRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · 2021-02
W · KO · R5
Augusto SakaiRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · 2020-09
W · KO · R2
Walt HarrisRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05
L · KO · R5
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
W · KO · R1
Aleksei OleinikRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04

Rozenstruik · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sergei PavlovichRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Tai TuivasaRating 4.9
Decision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
W · KO · R4
Shamil GazievRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03
L · Sub · R1
Jailton AlmeidaRating 3.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
W · KO · R1
Chris DaukausRating 5.3
KO/TKO
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12

News & Media

Alistair Overeem · Jairzinho Rozenstruik
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