UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
Newark, USA
9 May 2026
Flyweight
VS
50%
Carpenter
50%
Ochoa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Clayton
Clayton Carpenter
8 – 3
5'6"66" reachOrthodox29 yrs3-fight slideSubmission Hunter
CFR 53
Jose
Jose Ochoa
"Kalzifer"
9 – 2
Well-Rounded25 yrsSouthpaw67" reach5'7"
CFR 53

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Carpenter

This is a genuine toss-up — Carpenter at 50% vs Ochoa at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Carpenter has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Ochoa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Carpenter
Ochoa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
66"
Reach
+67"
29
Age
+25
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Carpenter
Ochoa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.6
53.3
47.0
Performance Avg
44.0
52
Quality of Victory
40
39
Momentum Score
69
Carpenter
Ochoa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.4
43%
Strike Accuracy
48%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
28
11
Body
12
5
Leg
8
RangeRange
17Distance47
2Clinch1
1Ground0
Carpenter
Ochoa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.7
Sub Attempts / fight
—
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Carpenter
Ochoa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
96
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/11 fights
Chin rating based on
4/11 fights
Carpenter
Ochoa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
69
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Carpenter
Ochoa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Carpenter
Ochoa
Striking0.8 / 6.0Volume0.8 / 5.0Grappling8.0 / 1.2Wrestling5.6 / 0.8Submission10.0 / 0.0Pressure8.2 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
0.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
Carpenter
Strike Zones
Ochoa
Carpenter
Attacking
4HEAD11BODY5LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
28HEAD12BODY8LEGS48 absorbed
Ochoa
Attacking
28HEAD12BODY8LEGS48 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD11BODY5LEGS20 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Carpenter targets the body (55% of attacks) — Ochoa absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Ochoa targets the head (58% of attacks) — Carpenter absorbs 58% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Carpenter
RND
Ochoa
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Carpenter · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.0W5.4W6.6L2.6L6.4L2023-022024-102025-012025-102026-05
WinLossTrend

Ochoa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.9
0106.2L5.4W6.6L5.4W2024-112025-062025-072026-05
WinLossTrend

Carpenter · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Jose OchoaRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Sub · R1
Jafel FilhoRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Tagir UlanbekovRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R2
Lucas RochaRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Sub · R1
Juancamilo RonderosRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · 2023-02

Ochoa · Last 4

W · Dec · R3
Clayton CarpenterRating 5.4
Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Asu AlmabayevRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
W · KO · R2
Cody DurdenRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Lone'er KavanaghRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · 2024-11

News & Media

Clayton Carpenter · Jose Ochoa
← Back to fights