UFC Fight Night: Stevenson vs Guillard
Las Vegas, USA
5 Apr 2007
Lightweight
VS
53%
Stevenson
47%
Guillard
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 0:27
JS
Joe Stevenson
"Daddy"
33 – 16
5'7"70" reachOrthodox43 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 20
MG
Melvin Guillard
"The Young Assassin"
32 – 18
Striker43 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Stevenson

This is a genuine toss-up — Stevenson at 53% vs Guillard at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Guillard throws more volume but Stevenson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Stevenson's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Guillard has a chin rating of 2 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Stevenson
Guillard
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
70"
Reach
+71"
43
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Stevenson
Guillard
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.6
17.7
49.2
Performance Avg
49.7
49
Quality of Victory
45
86
Momentum Score
73
Stevenson
Guillard
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.6
45%
Strike Accuracy
41%
2.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Stevenson
Guillard
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.8
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Stevenson
Guillard
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
2
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
6
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/49 fights
Chin rating based on
22/50 fights
Stevenson
Guillard
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
86
73
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Stevenson
Guillard
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
58%
1
KO / TKO Wins
7
3
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Stevenson
Guillard
Striking2.3 / 7.0Volume4.0 / 3.8Grappling3.9 / 0.8Wrestling2.7 / 0.6Submission3.8 / 0.0Pressure5.0 / 5.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.0
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
Stevenson
Strike Zones
Guillard
Stevenson
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Guillard
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Stevenson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Guillard absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Guillard targets the head (100% of attacks) — Stevenson absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Stevenson
RND
Guillard
0/0R00/0

Stevenson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0104.5W5.5L4.2W5.0W5.0W4.5W2.1L5.2W1.5L5.5L4.5W5.2W5.5L1.5L5.5L5.5L2005-112007-042008-112010-022011-06
WinLossTrend

Guillard · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0104.2W1.5L5.0W5.2W1.5L1.5L5.0W4.5W2.8L4.5W5.0W5.0W5.0W5.0W1.5L1.9L4.5W1.5L5.5L5.2W5.6L2005-112008-072011-012012-122014-03
WinLossTrend

Stevenson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Javier VazquezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry · 2011-06
L · Dec · R3
Danny CastilloRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann · 2011-03
L · KO · R1
Mac DanzigRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2 · 2010-12
L · Dec · R3
George SotiropoulosRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez · 2010-02
W · KO · R2
Spencer FisherRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun · 2009-10

Guillard · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa · 2014-03
Upcoming
Ross Pearson
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz · 2013-10
W · KO · R2
Mac DanzigRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07
L · Dec · R3
Jamie VarnerRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12
L · KO · R1
Donald CerroneRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II · 2012-08

News & Media

Joe Stevenson · Melvin Guillard
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